The United States is preparing to introduce new sanctions against Russia, it is expected that the lower house of the US Congress will vote for the corresponding bill on Tuesday, July 25. This document has already been approved by the Senate. It is not yet clear whether US President Donald Trump will sign the decision, but White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders assured that he supports the new sanctions package.

The document, in particular, provides for a reduction in the maximum term for market financing of Russian banks under sanctions to 14 days (now 90 days), and companies in the oil and gas sector to 30 days. The sanctions, among other things, are directed against the construction of the Russian Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, through which fuel should be delivered to Germany under the Baltic Sea, bypassing Ukraine and Poland. In Brussels, this idea was ambiguous, recommending that the United States first consult with the European Union on such "sensitive issues." The sensitivity of the restrictions on Nord Stream 2 is primarily due to the fact that Germany is interested in building the gas pipeline, while some other EU countries, including Poland and Slovakia, should be happy with such a turn. However, in response to US sanctions, the EU may take countermeasures.

At the same time, the European Union may impose new sanctions against Russia because of the scandal surrounding the supply of Siemens gas turbines to the occupied Crimea.

Until now, the EU and the US have adopted sanctions against the Russian Federation almost simultaneously. Over time, other countries joined them, including Ukraine. Today, about 150 people and 40 companies are under Western sanctions. Ukrainian ones affect almost 700 people and about 300 companies, including branches of all Russian state-owned banks.

Russia did not remain in debt and introduced counter-sanctions, banning a number of Western politicians from entering its territory. However, the food embargo on the relevant products of the United States, European and other states, again including Ukraine, has received the most notoriety.

Anti-Russian sanctions in action

The imposition of sanctions, contrary to the statements of Russian politicians, has an impact on the Russian economy, and this impact is quite negative. The crisis in the Russian economy is confirmed by macro indicators. GDP growth in 2014 was only 0.7%, while the initial forecast was 2.5%. In 2015, the Russian economy collapsed by 3% at once. In 2016, GDP continued to fall by 0.2%.

The sanctions also provoked a colossal outflow of capital from the Russian Federation - in 2014 it amounted to $153 billion, in 2015 - $57.5 billion, in 2016 - $15.4 billion. “The sanctions regime makes international investment capital very nervous. In the case of tough sanctions, there is a flight of domestic capital and a colossal outflow of foreign capital, ”said Russian financier Slava Rabinovich in a commentary to Apostrophe.

Due to sanctions, the economic cooperation of the Russian Federation with other countries is being reduced. So, in 2015, the trade turnover between Russia and the EU collapsed by 40%. Cooperation with Ukraine is also on the wane - over the three years of "trade wars" trade between the countries has fallen five times.

Context

Sanctions quarreled Europe and America

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 25.07.2017

USA - EU: clash of interests

Politico 24.07.2017

US sanctions against Russia have always been

National Public Radio 07/23/2017 At the same time, according to the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, in 2014-2015, due to food counter-sanctions, food prices in Russia increased by almost a third (31.6%). The jump in prices was especially noticeable in 2015 (the Russian Federation introduced a food embargo in August 2014).

In general, sanctions have significantly undermined the financial solvency of Russians. In particular, this is due to the collapse of the Russian ruble. December 6, 2014 went down in Russian history as Black Tuesday, when the ruble fell from 60 rubles per dollar to almost 80 rubles per dollar. Despite the fact that the Russian currency later somewhat regained this fall, its rate could not return to the level of just over 30 rubles per dollar, which was a year earlier, and Bloomberg called the Russian ruble the worst currency of 2014. Today, about 60 Russian rubles are given for the American dollar.

Due to the decline in real incomes, Russians have become less likely to travel abroad. According to official data, the tourist flow from the Russian Federation in 2015 decreased by almost 20%. In 2016, it also fell, but more slowly - by 8%.

However, travel, especially abroad, is not a basic human need. But there are big problems with the latter in Russia. According to a study by the Russian Center for Economic and Political Reforms, families in the Russian Federation spend 70-100% of their salary budget on essentials. At the same time, according to the RANEPA Institute for Social Forecasting, about a third of all Russians are at risk of falling into poverty.

Sanctions hit by sector

One of the consequences of the sanctions is the inability of the Russian Federation to use the technologies it needs. Such restrictions are experienced by all spheres, but they are especially noticeable for the military-industrial complex. The Russian military-industrial complex is highly dependent on components that were previously purchased from Ukrainian manufacturers. For aviation, for example, these are products of the Motor Sich company (Zaporozhye), which produces engines for airplanes and helicopters. In the space sector, the Russian Federation for many years was tied to launch vehicles and missile systems developed by Yuzhnoye Design Bureau (Dnepr). Due to the cessation of supplies of Ukrainian gas turbine units from the Zorya-Mashproekt enterprise (Nikolaev), Russia cannot complete the construction of a number of ships for its navy. As a result, the ships will be sold to India, which will independently purchase the necessary propulsion systems.

In order to circumvent sanctions, the Russian leadership often resorts to deceit, as happened with the scandal around the Siemens turbines in Crimea.

Another important effect of the sanctions is to limit the access of Russian business to the so-called "cheap" money in Western banks. If in 2013 Russia attracted $46.4 billion on the Eurobond market, then in 2015 this figure decreased by almost 10 times - to about $5 billion. cost of capital (weighted average cost of capital). “With the imposition of sanctions, with the flight of investment capital, with an increase in risks, the weighted average cost of capital increases several times, respectively, it becomes more and more difficult for companies to remain profitable. What we see now in Russia is a catastrophic decline in profitability, a catastrophic decline in the share of profitable companies, ”the expert noted.

Despite the obvious effect of the sanctions on the Russian economy with a minus sign, the figures show that in Lately their influence has waned somewhat. This indicates that Russia was able to adapt to the sanctions, according to Russian economist Dmitry Nekrasov. “Especially at the first stage in 2014, when there was an outflow of capital of about $150-160 billion, the imposition of sanctions had a very strong impact on the Russian economy. In the medium term, the impact of sanctions is still there, but there is no need to talk about some terrible things. It is clear that this holds back economic growth, but in general, capital outflows have also been greatly reduced, and many companies have learned to circumvent all these sanctions, ”the expert said in a commentary to Apostrophe, adding that in the long term,“ sanctions will greatly undermine opportunities for economic growth in Russia.

If the US accepts a new sanctions package, the implementation of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project will be in jeopardy - serious companies simply will not risk participating in it.

In addition, new sanctions will complicate the already tight borrowing conditions for Russian companies and banks. And this will contribute to the further deterioration of the economic situation in the Russian Federation.

Slava Rabinovich predicts that maintaining the sanctions regime will be a colossal blow to the Russian banking system. According to him, several systemically important banks have provided loans to a significant part of the Russian economy, and Sberbank accounts for lending to about half of the entire economy of the Russian Federation.

“If the entire Russian economy starts to collapse in the form of massive bankruptcies of companies, this will be followed by a collapse banking system", said the expert. According to him, attempts to save systemically important banks will cause the need to start issuing, which "will lead to the collapse of the ruble, which will lead, in turn, to the termination of the ruble as a unit of account in international trade, which will lead to the collapse of imports."

“What we are seeing is nothing but slow motion footage of a train wreck. They can only slow down or speed up, but the train crash will happen absolutely for sure, ”Rabinovich summed up.

The materials of InoSMI contain only assessments of foreign media and do not reflect the position of the editors of InoSMI.

All comments

• 08:20 26.07.2017 | 32

  ALICE

  and dream and dream, purely Ukrainians

• 11:17 26.07.2017 | 3

  Greycat

  purely Ukrainians ------- rotten... How can one not remember where the saying about the neighbor's cow came from.

• 13:44 26.07.2017 | 0

  conservative reactionary

  ALICE, "New sanctions against Russia: the collapse will happen absolutely" - but let's take them at their word. Let's just see what happens in six months or a year. But I will say one thing - when Ukraine is covered with a copper basin, I will not cry and I will not transfer money. And I will not accept refugees from among the "brotherly people".

• 16:39 27.07.2017 | 0

  gennadiy21

  A conservative reactionary, it would be wise to confine oneself to the glory of Rabinovich and Co.

• 14:14 26.07.2017 | 0

  trick

  ALICE, they think it didn't work out the first time, but it certainly didn't work the second time. History teaches fools nothing.

• 08:25 26.07.2017 | 18

  alchi

• 16:32 26.07.2017 | 0

  darsan7796

  alchi, "According to Slava Rabinovich" Yes, this is Slavik! Do you know beer on Sukharevka? So he is there! On the same Friday we will ask an asshole for the market!

• 22:32 26.07.2017 | 1

  Marquis Aamon

  alchi, wake up. As far back as 1811, such forecasts were printed in Paris itself!

• 08:26 26.07.2017 | 9

  Tovlacherov

  How scary to live

• 05:56 27.07.2017 | 0

  samsonoff.aleksei2012

  Tovlacherov, don't say... :-)

• 08:26 26.07.2017 | 3

  g.goworowa

  Close-minded ... it won't make it any easier for you. Russia stood, stands and will stand

• 08:30 26.07.2017 | -4

  Trotsky was not on the moon

  Stupid bastards! Well, where are the sanctions? Some sanctions of laughter! Our economy is in a state of flux for two other painful reasons: 1) Oil-breadwinner and gas-father are now being sold at simply ridiculous prices. And for the World Energy Power, it's simply indecent. 2) For the last 15 years, our Leader has been steering the country's economy personally, in manual mode, about which earlier (well, when oil was for a hundred and there were enough buns for everyone) he liked to brag to the journalistic brethren on occasion with a slight squint. Well, that’s how I got on the hike ... Hmm ... Or maybe I'm wrong, was that how it was intended? After all, on the other hand, everything is not so bad, after all, the Kremlin found another 7 lard dollars in 2017 to invest in the US economy? By the way, in total, in this way we support the economy of "our partner" (who sometimes covers us with sanctions, sometimes compares us with Ebola) by more than a hundred lard bucks. So everything is smooth! There is no money! True, against this background, it is not clear why the Kremlin has been confiscating the pension savings of citizens for the fourth year again from the Pension Fund to the budget? But maybe just overlooked? In the end, we are now living at the break of two great eras of the current political regime, when the era of the Genius of the wives of the modest and faithful companions of the Leader is being replaced by the era of the Brilliant sons of the modest and faithful companions of the Leader. Apparently, the Russian aristocracy is being born again! I am sure that the living wage of ten thousand rubles will soon be raised! Perhaps even immediately as much as 500 rubles! The country is rich! World power! Stupid bastards don't run...

• 08:43 26.07.2017 | -2

  electroyandex

  Trotsky was not on the moon, About wives and children, you repeat yourself, you curse, or you have no wife or children.

• 08:55 26.07.2017 | 0

  Trotsky was not on the moon

  electroyandex, I emphasize. Nothing more. As Karla Radek once said, we live in interesting times, comrades! From a historical point of view, it's very entertaining! No kidding. electroyandex, and about my personal life, let me assure you in the most honest way, I'm fine! By the way, there is good news: pensions have been raised by as much as two hundred rubles! So there is reason for optimism!

• 15:56 26.07.2017 | 0

  tues39

  electroyandex, please name the oil prices before 2005? just - for our general education to know)))

• 08:53 26.07.2017 | 1

  U-2

  Trotsky was not on the moon, you can learn more about the confiscation of the pension savings of the population. Tell us which categories of pensioners and their pensions have ALREADY(!!) suffered from this. Or why and who will suffer in the future. Do you even know the topic you're talking about? Do you remember the pensions that were before the GDP?

• 09:12 26.07.2017 | 0

  Trotsky was not on the moon

  U-2, I have already said before, this political regime will someday be written about: it took him ten years to get Russia out of the 90s, and then in another ten years this regime brought Russia back to the 90s again. Dear, the current withdrawals from the FIU will backfire in twenty years. Apparently, therefore, mindful of the parable of the padishah and the donkey, the current government so freely and swindles the pension contributions of citizens to the budget, where they are simply eaten away. By the way, I have never heard the Kremlin's plans to return to the FIU the money seized in previous years in the budget. Or have you heard about it? Accumulative deductions of citizens of the Russian Federation are one of the largest inflows of funds to the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation (except for pensions of security officials). From the amount of money in the PFR, the average pension of a Russian is formed (I explain in a simplified way). Accordingly, if there is a pool from which water leaves through a pipe, and another pipe (through which water enters the pool) is blocked, then the hole in the PFR will only grow. And every year more and more. And given our demographics and the fact that, on average, our population is aging (the share of pensioners for every working citizen is constantly growing). In a word, there is nothing to be surprised why in Russia the average pension (I do not take pensions of officials and judges) is an order of magnitude less than in the same Serbia and Poland. And it's not strange. Given the attitude of our government to the FIU, this is natural. I remember that even Yarovaya, on her Super Law, offered to shy away from the Pension Fund the required lards for its implementation. True, here the power of conscience was enough, this nonsense is not to pull the future pensions of Russians. The way out, it seems, was found simpler, the costs of the Yarovaya mega-law will be hung on the shoulders of citizens, making them into the tariffs for telephone calls and Internet charges. And what? Our people are rich, and will pull it out.

• 09:30 26.07.2017 | 3

  electroyandex

  Trotsky was not on the Moon, Everyone understands perfectly well about the situation in the country, since there is enough information. Therefore, your flooding with a nightingale about "how bad everything is" is perceived as an annoying fly. It's one thing if this is a way to make money, it's another to show how smart and dissatisfied you are .

• 10:08 26.07.2017 | 0

  Trotsky was not on the moon

• 09:33 26.07.2017 | 2

  U-2

  Trotsky was not on the moon, Hollow Breh! Not a single pension ruble has been taken from anyone's pension. Not today, not yesterday. There is a huge deficit in the pension fund, so it is physically impossible to steal from there. Shamefully merged with the question of the size of pensions before Putin. You are trying to hide the gaping emptiness with verbosity ... sadness ... Personal request, change your nickname and profile picture. According to the Soviet habit, I treat Trotsky negatively, but fairly, and you show inhuman lawlessness towards him.

• 11:00 26.07.2017 | 0

  connecting rod

  U-2, right now, liberals on every talk show remember grandmothers, but in the 90s, under EBN, when pensions and salaries were delayed and not paid for half a year or more, everyone, including the West, applauded us ...

• 11:11 26.07.2017 | 0

  Trotsky was not on the moon

  Shamefully merged with the question of the size of pensions before Putin .... U-2, no, it did not merge. I will tell you more, if we compare pensions under GDP and under Ivan the Terrible, then the gain in favor of GDP will be even greater. Again, do you think that if under Yeltsin gas and oil were under a hundred, Yeltsin would not have paid a good pension to the old people? Yes, GDP raised something, but ... Inflation and rising prices VERY quickly eat up this difference between Yeltsin's and vvpeshnoy pensions. ..There is a huge deficit in the pension fund... That's right, DEFICIENCY! And instead of covering this deficit, this hole is being widened even more, depriving the PFR of the main source of inflow of money, namely, withdrawing the pension savings of citizens to the budget. By the way, you are aware that until 2013 the withdrawal of money from the FIU was actually illegal. Under this case, even a special law, indistinct and incomprehensible, was already adopted at a run, apparently, it was completely shut down. ... Trotsky was one of the Fathers of the Revolution. Personally, you can treat him however you like. But if not for him, then it is far from a fact that the USSR would have taken place at all. And you were never a Soviet person. And I answer for the words - Trotsky has never really been on the moon.

• 11:38 26.07.2017 | 0

  Trotsky was not on the moon

  U-2, U-2, liberals on every talk show remember grandmothers ... The country was not destroyed by liberals. The country was destroyed by the communists. Which the current priests also unconditionally believed for all 70 years and obediently marched into a brighter future. And in the 90s, the IMF borrowed money so that the people would not die of hunger. And mother oil, together with gas father, cost 20 points. If Yeltsin had had sotochka oil, I'm sure he would also generously hand out high pensions and salaries, maybe he would now be called only the Father of the Nation. Damn the global economy...

• 09:55 26.07.2017 | 1

  cabin boy pacific

  Trotsky was not on the moon, Let's just say you are a useless expert, why show something that is not there.

• 11:13 26.07.2017 | 0

  Trotsky was not on the moon

  cabin boy Pacific, with pleasure I will listen to your conclusions, dear Great Ykspert! Where is our country going? Where is the current political regime taking her? What are we developing? Democracy? Technocracy? Monarchism? Liberalism? Our prospects in the social sphere, science, on the world stage? I have expressed my opinion and I am sure, to my deep regret, that the current regime is slowly but surely mutating into the Yeltsin regime.

• 09:57 26.07.2017 | 2

  connecting rod

  Trotsky was not on the moon, why do you think that you should increase the cost of living in general, no one owes you anything, if the rogue is your problem, we will again live in subsistence farming, as in the nineties, but nothing good will happen, at least change a hundred times and hang out, the authorities are not smart, it’s us ourselves and any of us, once there, will do the same ... and all the indignation that there is no access to the feeder, that’s all .... there is a huge expanse and everything for us, in the Middle Ages yard .. .

• 11:16 26.07.2017 | 0

  Trotsky was not on the moon

  rod-shah, well ... Your post, probably, can be framed) Even though it's sad. I will not argue with you. Actually, you state the actual state of affairs in the country.

• 11:57 26.07.2017 | 0

  Trotsky was not on the moon

  And why do you think that you should increase the cost of living in general .. shatun shah, just one remark .. If the population is generally poor, then you won’t take any taxes or fees from it (even Platonov’s), even for housing and communal services there will be problems. If a person plows, and there is only enough money to survive, then do not expect extra patriotism from such a person (how will he go to fight for the country tomorrow if the family barely makes ends meet at home). And in general, there are a lot of minuses if the population in the country is mostly poor. It was already like that. under Nicholas II. And then something somehow suddenly took and blazed. Bach and all. He took the people and believed the marginal radical Lenin.

• 10:35 26.07.2017 | 1

  Mercury

  Trotsky was not on the moon, you won’t be able to control the entrance, why are you pretending to be smart? Your reasoning - sucking from the fingers in an attempt to console yourself. However, you can dump in a flourishing khokhlopopiya, if not already there.

• 11:34 26.07.2017 | 0

  Trotsky was not on the moon

  Merkuriy, That's the whole trouble, that there is even nothing to console yourself with. The picture of the immediate prospects and the future of our country emerges natural and well-deserved. And yes, I never managed the entrance)) Well, maybe it will happen again, who knows) My reasoning is the most ordinary facts. I don't understand why you are so mad at them? By the way, they are really our little brothers. We are one people. Very similar. For they themselves are never to blame for anything (neither we nor Ukrainians). For we (like the Ukrainians) are God's chosen people and we have our own special path (no one really knows which one, neither we nor the Ukrainians). The State Department is always to blame for all our troubles (among Ukrainians, "curse Muscovites"). In general, our bosses are in some kind of mental dependence on Kiev (no matter how ridiculous it may sound). Examples: Back in the late 90s, Khozly began to put "brilliant talents" (usually the children of big officials) at the head of their STATE factories - ours torn this thing up somewhere in the middle of the 2000s. We know the result of Ukrainian industry, and soon, apparently, we will know the result of our personnel policy at state-owned enterprises (there is no easy oil money now to plug holes from the results of managing state assets by "young talents"). Only the Khozls established the National Guard in their country, and ours, apparently, having studied how the National Guard is able to mercilessly fight the enemies of the state, they immediately create the National Guard in the Russian Federation. True, we went even further - we even in " individual cases"Army units will be subordinated to the National Guardsmen. (This, by the way, was not the case not under the Republic of Ingushetia, nor under the USSR). Only Ukrainians began to fight the Internet (prohibitions of social networks, etc.), I look and ours are promptly pulled up ... One in a word, I am already afraid of the initiatives of Poroshenko and the Rada.

• 15:29 26.07.2017 | 0

  Mercury

  Trotsky was not on the moon, your reasoning is not facts, because you are talking about the future, trying to find analogies in different cases (comparing the National Guard of Ukraine and Russia in particular), trying to draw conclusions from your own reasoning. And yes, you don’t blame yourself, you found the culprit in Putin (yes, yes, he personally runs everything, I haven’t read it, but I condemn it). Unlike you, I am not looking for the guilty, the problems of Russia are the problems of all its inhabitants, from the janitor to the president. And you can keep looking for demons and assume that these are facts. PS Peter the Great, in an attempt to change the country, began with its mentality.

• 16:16 26.07.2017 | 0

  Trotsky was not on the moon

  Your reasoning is not facts, because you are talking about the future, trying to find analogies in different cases ... Merkuriy, for the last almost 18 years the country has been following the course destined by the GDP, its faithful associates, its ruling party. And therefore, to ask the janitor on a par with the Leader that we again wandered into a dead end, I consider it wrong. I'm not looking for someone to blame. And I give an assessment of the 18-year-old political regime of the GDP. I give an assessment based on my own conclusions (which, by the way, is hardly interesting to GDP itself) and the reality that I see before my eyes every day. In other words, I express my opinion about what is happening in the country. By the way, my right, if anything ... And my opinion is this: I am against the GDP, because I think that its domestic policy is erroneous and dangerous for Russia, the political course of the GDP is disastrous for Russia. In parallel, so precisely, I compare the processes that are taking place in our country with those processes that are taking place in a neighboring country. And you must admit that there is something in common in these processes. And, the guilty, dear, in our country the court determines. I repeat my prediction: someday they will write about this political regime that it took him ten years to get Russia out of the 90s, and then in another ten years this regime again returned Russia to the 90s. And who will we ask for this, for the result of many years of rule, (most likely, by the way, we won’t ask anyone, someone will die by that time, and someone will go to their dachas near Paris or in Bali) with GDP, with a janitor, with a prime minister, with bikers, with Edra deputies or teachers with doctors, this is another matter.

• 11:38 26.07.2017 | 2

  cabin boy pacific

  Trotsky was not on the moon, I am not Ykspert, I have been living in this country for more than one or even four decades, and I see how things are going with us. It is hard, with effort, but they are going, for the better, and as far as the economy is concerned, this is the government, not the president.

• 11:51 26.07.2017 | 0

  Trotsky was not on the moon

  the cabin boy is Pacific, and as for the economy, the government, not the president, is doing this ... Yes, well))) I don’t remember how many times over the past 15 years (well, while it was raining from petrodollars, now, yes, he doesn’t like about remember this) our Leader liked to emphasize that he steers the country manually, delves into all economic decisions ... This is like his pearls about the Great Energy Power (again, while oil was for a hundred). And then some kind of crap turns out, while the country is on the rise, the loot from the Pipe flows like a river, we are a Great Energy Power - is it all thanks to the Leader? And how they sank, then it's all Lame Misha's fault, right? Well, well)) ... It's hard, with effort, but things are going for the better ... Believe me, I really, really, really hope that it is YOU who are right, and not me. But nobody canceled the laws of economics and political science. And 2x2=4. And therefore ... I am extremely pessimistic about the course that the current political regime leads our country.

• 11:54 26.07.2017 | 0

  Trotsky was not on the moon, 1. precisely because the prices are ridiculous and indecent, all trash climbed into this market with their shales? 2. about taxiing the economy personally by the Leader and bragging, proofs would not hurt.

• 12:13 26.07.2017 | 0

  Trotsky was not on the moon

  Sn, heh))) And what about the competition, no? In the same way, if every trash didn’t get into the market with their processors and LCD monitors, then the traders of calculators and typewriters would still earn big money)) And then the trash showered the market with laptops) And the prices for calculators and typewriters became ridiculous .. Again and earlier, study the oil market in the 19th and 20th century, oil prices have always been sinusoidal (depending on fluctuations in the world economy), one decade they hit the ceiling, the next decade they fall below the plinth. World economy, fuck her mother) Eh, if oil-breadwinner ALWAYS (constant) cost two hundred dollars per barrel, no question, our Leader, yes, would go down in history as the Great OZ. But... Damn reality always destroys aspirations and dreams. Before GDP, Brezhnev can be called a darling of oil)) Of course, oil was not worth a hundred at that time. But then the dollar itself was worth more. I'm not even going to try to throw off the proofs. It happened a great many times. The image of GDP has always been built on this, they say, he personally does not sleep at night, he delves into everything, and especially into ECONOMIC DECISIONS. And it is precisely his policy, his decisions that are implemented by the faithful and obedient government and the no less faithful and obedient ruling party. When he beat his heels in the chest, exclaiming "Yes, I am a slave in the galleys." And now he, like, is out of business or what?) Heh ... It will be a beautiful bend. Gebyata-gebyata, I was not aware, these are all liberals and the state department, please understand and forgive? Heh ... The most offensive, it would be better if he really worked out his two terms and would have left. But no, you see, he turned into the next Savior of Russia and the Raiser of the country from the knees. In September, by the way, Brezhnev will beat Brezhnev's record for taxiing the country)

• 12:07 26.07.2017 | 1

  cabin boy pacific

  Trotsky was not on the moon. You know, by the nature of my work I often go to the store (not for groceries, my wife does this), I buy either drills, or hammer drills, or some other technical rubbish, and noticed that in recent years a lot of Russian production has appeared. Someone scolds for poor quality, someone praises, anything can happen, the main thing is that it appeared, the conclusion: The economy lives, badly, poorly, but lives, I hope it will flourish. And if instead of work we squeal "atu rob" I think you don't need to say what will happen. In our country, only in a hundred years, the country fell apart 2 times, and only thanks to people like our President, it did not fall apart completely. By the way, you respected Trotsky also had a hand in gathering the country.

• 12:26 26.07.2017 | 0

  Trotsky was not on the moon

  cabin boy Pacific, I repeat, believe me, I really, really, really hope that it is YOU who are right, and not me. Nobody says that nothing has been done with GDP. A lot has been done. The trouble is that with the GDP, a lot of things have also been done (missed) (in my opinion), which, in the overall result, I'm afraid, will multiply everything good by zero. Namely: rampant corruption, ungirdled officials, cop lawlessness (or when a polkan finds 9 lard in a sister’s hut, isn’t it lawlessness?), some kind of feudal personnel policy (sorry, when a person at 33 years old doesn’t recognize a belmez or a grocer in aircraft construction to steer the largest aviation enterprise? Who appointed Vasiliev in the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation? and I can give many, many such examples), the elite, who have gone crazy from their own impunity. hmm ... Yes, something is being done somewhere pointwise (it seems that it is purely for show). Who is caught, planted. But there is no systematic approach. Again, well, GDP will sit still in the Kremlin for 15 years. And then how? Again, from the "near lads" the new conditional "Khrushchev" with the new conditional "Beria" will share power, again almost putting the country (as the real Khrushchev and Beria did) to the brink of civil war? The trouble is when there are no political traditions in the country. I am a liberal. I am a technocrat. Maybe that's my problem. Maybe my worldview is just different from yours. And therefore, I am extremely pessimistic about the course of the current political regime.

• 12:32 26.07.2017 | 0

  cabin boy pacific

  Trotsky was not on the moon, I'm sorry, but you write what happened, I know that, but can you write what needs to be done? Here is such a stupid little question (eternal) WHAT TO DO?

• 13:13 26.07.2017 | 0

  Trotsky was not on the moon

  cabin boy Pacific, this is the question Herr Chernyshevsky in the novel "What to do"? asked as far back as 1862! Not a damn thing has changed in a hundred and fifty years, right? Honestly, I would start with corruption. I mean, not only bribes and kickbacks (this, by the way, is still tolerable), but more of a really feudal personnel policy and clan system. By the way, there is something to learn from our Western partners and from China, for example. And in the USSR, again, there were many good developments on this topic. In my opinion, it is corruption that is the most terrible enemy of the country (worse than the state department), that's for sure. The most annoying thing is that in many countries this has been and is being done (of course, corruption cannot be completely eradicated, but it can actually be reduced). Technically, I won’t describe how to do this, all this was invented before us, all this can be implemented, if there is political will. Introduce the political principle of the change of power. Just like in China. Every ten years, the top leadership must change. So that the Evonian comrades-in-arms do not grow too close to their high chairs. Has the Chinese government found the strength to go for it? And it's happening. Let members of the same party come to power, but still these are new people, which means that the former owners of the country will beware of grabbing too much (tomorrow the new owners may ask for old deeds). This is where you should start. Then the time will come for the next reforms. It's not worth it to unpack everything.

Probably, this is how the current month is defined for the financial and political circles of Russia. Gloomy tones were added most of all by the upcoming doublet of new anti-Russian sanctions, now from the US State Department. Recall that a month earlier, similar actions, mainly against the leadership of our country, were announced by the United States Congress.

The first package of state departmental sanctions, the grounds for which, apart from the Skripal case, were not found in the States, it is planned to be introduced after August 20. It restricts the supply of electronic products to Russia, which, according to the sanctioners, can also be used in the defense industry.

The second part will be introduced if Moscow does not provide guarantees of the non-use of biological and chemical weapons, and also allows the UN and other international organizations to conduct checks on the territory of the country. In other words, open the doors of secret military factories. Of course, this will not happen, which means that Aeroflot will have problems, up to a ban on flights to the United States. In addition, diplomatic relations between the countries will actually be severed. But the most unpleasant thing for our financial system, which is actually built around the dollar, is that Russian state-owned banks can be completely cut off from the international system of dollar trading and lending, including settlements on Russian government obligations.

Shock and offshore

The strongest shock in the Russian elites, which their overseas patrons provoked with a mere promise to block their ability to withdraw money from Russia and invest it in Western jurisdictions, can be seen in the reaction of the highest government officials of the Russian Federation, including the Sunday "calming" speech of the vice- Prime Minister, Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation Anton Siluanov. He, as usual, read a mantra about the stability of the financial system and the possibility to start selling oil for rubles at any moment. If this is a joke, then this is clearly not the time for it. Recall that only the announcement of new sanctions brought down the ruble, and its fall, apparently, does not stop.

This is probably why the government prepared Russian offshore companies on the Russky Islands in Primorye and Oktyabrsky Islands in the Kaliningrad Region so hastily. Now, large businesses can, by registering with them, save on taxes and mandatory foreign exchange deductions, while the population is forced to tighten their belts, increase VAT (they say, by two percent, but 2 out of 18 is 11 percent; by the way, the same with utility tariffs) and much more, which we have repeatedly written about.

Against Russia

Yes, the country's financial system has demonstrated resilience throughout the entire period of Western sanctions since 2014. Because they didn't touch her directly. Yes, and our state-owned banks have existed quite comfortably all this time, actively engaging in financial speculation, including in the US stock market. Sberbank, by the way, did not begin to work directly in Crimea, fearing that it would lose its position in the United States due to secondary sanctions. Now everything can change. And the worst thing for business circles will happen - the inability to make payments in foreign currency through correspondent accounts of domestic banks.

In fact, the American establishment, having actually given a damn about President Trump, has come out in a consolidated manner against Russia. Whether it was the result of the Helsinki meeting between the two presidents or the Russian-Iranian cooperation that was painful for Israel against the background of successes in Syria, one thing is clear: sanctions are only a fragment of a general plan to destabilize the situation in Russia, which the financial system cut off from the dollar should provoke. The former head of the CIA, Michael Morell, said that this is exactly what the new economic sanctions of the US Congress are designed for.

Who will we save?

It is clear that our banks will require the attention of the state, first of all, to themselves as the basis of financial stability, and there is no doubt that financial policy will be aimed at saving banks, and not the real sector of the country's economy.

It should be noted that the government took measures to stabilize the banking sector: it created its own payment system MIR, an analogue of the international SWIFT, and the volume of purchases of US treasury bills dropped sharply. What could be the next step in the conditions, as Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev put it, of a full-scale economic war, one can only guess. One of the possible scenarios involves limiting the use of the dollar in Russian Federation and even, as it were, freezing the population's foreign currency accounts in banks, more precisely, their forced-voluntary exchange for domestic rubles. But this, according to analysts of business publications, is possible only in the event of a complete rupture of relations with the United States.

Probably, not only for me, but also for many readers, the question arises: why does America, with its sanctions, primarily hit the liberal financial circles devoted to it in Russia, the corruption of which is precisely the main task of the American policy of planting democracy around the world? Maybe this time the reason for another US irritation was the fact that there is corruption in Russia, but the elite created with American money does not fulfill its tasks - it does not destabilize the situation, the regime does not weaken, and even begins to interfere in world markets. So we started on a new one. Whether our financial system will withstand this blow, time and the dollar will show. But for some reason it seems that again at our expense. And what do you think?

Broadcast

From the beginning From the end

Do not update Update

The final quotes for today are as follows. Dollar 66.6 rubles, Euro 76.85 rubles. By the previous close it is 1% and 0.7% respectively. Our online is closed on this. Let's hope that a flock of regular "black swans" will not fly from Washington.

After some time, the exchange rate may return to a level below 65 rubles per dollar. Increased volatility will remain on the foreign exchange market for several more days, the rate may fluctuate in the range of 65-70, Vashchenko believes. But after the wave of bond sales declines, the rate, according to Vashchenko, has every chance of dropping below 65.

The reaction to the new sanctions is not as harsh as before. If in April the market fell by about 10% in 1 day, today, although there were strong sales in the morning, the situation on the stock market calmed down relatively quickly, notes Georgy Vashchenko, head of the Russian stock market operations department at Freedom Finance IC.

Even the toughest version of US sanctions, which prohibit dollar settlements for Russian state-owned banks, will not prevent exporters from the Russian Federation from selling oil, economists interviewed by RIA Novosti believe. In particular, Oleg Vyugin, ex-deputy chairman of the Central Bank, professor at the Faculty of Economic Sciences at the Higher School of Economics, believes that energy companies can leave state banks for private banks and receive payments to these accounts from European credit organizations.

Republican Senator John McCain expressed support for the new anti-Russian sanctions, which were announced on Wednesday, August 8. “Glad to see that the State Department is imposing new sanctions on Russia for chemical attacks in Britain,” he wrote on his Twitter. The senator also noted that the State Department should exercise "supervision" that the sanctions are implemented "quickly and fully."

The stock market made another small leap and closed an hour ago with an increase of 0.72% to 2309.6 on the Moscow Exchange index. The ruble is gradually losing ground. At 20:00 Moscow time, 66.42 rubles were given for the dollar, and 76.75 rubles for the euro.

Analysts give a forecast for tomorrow. If some more frightening additions or leaks regarding sanctions appear tonight, then tomorrow the rate may test the 67.5 mark against the dollar, but this will be followed by a decrease, Artem Deev from Amarkets believes. He notes that such fluctuations in the foreign exchange market often follow the same pattern: first, a sharp movement, sometimes within 2-3 days, and then a gradual, much slower, reverse return of the rate by about 50% of the first impulse. So it was in 2015, and in 2016, and in April of this year - the only difference is in scale.

Meanwhile, the net outflow of capital from Russia, according to the Central Bank, in the period from January to July 2018 increased by 2.5 times and amounted to $21.5 billion. Russia, increased to $21.5 billion from $8.7 billion in January-July 2017. The regulator emphasized that the prevailing dynamics of the indicator was due mainly to the growth of foreign assets of other sectors, along with the continuing reduction in banks' liabilities to non-residents.

In general, analysts believe that the current round of ruble weakening will lead to some price growth towards the end of the year. At the same time, inflationary expectations of the population associated with an increase in VAT from 18% to 20% in 2019 will also peak. But while the forecast is moderately optimistic - inflation this year is unlikely to go beyond the target level of 4%. According to the results of July, it amounted to 2.5%, according to Rosstat.

For now, we should not expect a rise in commodity prices due to the weakening of the ruble. Firstly, the rate fell by a couple of percent, which is not critical for importers. In addition, “consumer goods prices react to external factors with a certain time interval, unless it is a situation of an acute economic crisis, as in 2014-2015,” Alpari’s Milchakova notes. Usually this effect becomes noticeable to a simple buyer not earlier than in a month. There is no crisis in the economy now. In addition, seasonal factors also operate in the summer - prices for a number of food products, primarily for fruits and vegetables, do not grow.

Russia has long been living in a period of economic pressure and seems to have learned how to deal with it. But such stability leads to a slowdown in economic growth, argues Andrey Kiselev, managing partner of the Di-Invest group. “I think the development scenario is a symbiosis of measures to combat the growing pressure and measures to increase investment potential. Are retaliatory measures needed? It looks like they are needed. However, today it is better to focus on the growth curve,” he said.

The publication of a draft law on new anti-Russian sanctions, prepared by US congressmen, caused quite a panic among investors, which has subsided only slightly today, says Sofia Kirsanova, senior analyst at Raiffeisen Capital. Market participants were reassured by the comments of the US State Department regarding Aeroflot that direct sanctions against the airline are not planned. In addition, investor sentiment was positively affected by reports that the first round of sanctions, which will come into force on August 22, will not have a very significant effect, since it will mainly include a ban on the sale of military and dual-use goods to the Russian Federation. And already the second round, 3 months after the first one, should contain restrictions on financial transactions of American banks with Russian ones, as well as a ban on direct air transportation. Accordingly, investors considered that the time interval between the first and second rounds would allow the Russian authorities to somehow smooth out the growing conflict, the market sentiment analyst explains.

A possible ban on the supply of rocket engines to the United States will also hit Russia itself. Igor Arbuzov, General Director of NPO Energomash, spoke at the end of July this year about the signing of an agreement with United Launch Alliance for the supply to the States by 2020 of six RD-180s that will be used in Atlas 5 rocket launches.

Sergei Ryabukhin, Chairman of the Federation Council Budget Committee, said that the Russian side could respond to new US sanctions in the field of unique developments. According to Ryabukhin, Russia may respond to the American side by banning the import of RD-180 rocket engines into the United States. These engines are used by the United States for flights to the International Space Station.

An intermediate result of today's difficult day. The stock market managed to keep from falling. The Moscow Exchange Index at 6 pm Moscow time increased by 0.1% to 2295 points. Blue chips gained 0.15%. The ruble has fallen slightly over the past hour - the dollar is trading at 66.3, the euro at 76.8.

Russia will not comply with the conditions of the United States, which were put forward for non-implementation of the second round of sanctions in the Skripal case. The Russian Foreign Ministry called them "unacceptable." “As a condition for lifting US sanctions, demands that are obviously unacceptable to us are put forward, and this is the first stage. We are threatened with further buildup of sanctions pressure. Thus, the United States is deliberately following the path of further aggravation of bilateral relations, which, in fact, have already been reduced by their efforts to almost zero, ”said Maria Zakharova. Accordingly, we should expect another wave of restrictive measures.

Do not drive Russia into a corner! The promised freezing of bank accounts is too improbable a scenario, this will never happen, Shustov is sure. “Because if you compare such a sanctions struggle with military actions, then freezing bank accounts is like blocking or poisoning the enemy’s water. Experienced military men never do this, because they understand that this makes the situation hopeless for the enemy, and in a hopeless situation, people begin to act desperately and even heroically, and the besiegers cannot oppose this heroism,” he says. Freezing money in your accounts means forcing another country to act desperately, and no one wants a real direct clash, no one is interested in it. I believe that by September the ruble will enter a new range against the dollar, 65-70 rubles.

Investors digested the State Department's messages and decided that it was too early to flee Russia. At 17:00, the Moscow Exchange index went up, adding 0.05%. But the ruble could not win back the morning collapse. The dollar is still trading at about 66.1 rubles, the euro around 76.6.

The State Department clarified its position on sanctions. US sanctions on Russia would target exports of national security-related goods, including sectors such as specialized oil and gas technology and some electronics and sensors, a senior US State Department official told Reuters on Thursday. When asked whether sanctions would be applied directly to Aeroflot, the official replied that they would not, but theoretically could affect the company if it tried to import any of the goods from the sanctions list.

There was an official reaction of the Russian Foreign Ministry new sanctions. The official representative of the department, Maria Zakharova, said that "the Russian side will work out responses to the next unfriendly step by Washington." She called the pretext for imposing new sanctions "far-fetched", and talking with Russia from a position of strength and using the language of ultimatums - unpromising and useless.

The new sanctions will only strengthen Russia's cooperation with its main partners, Novatek CEO Leonid Mikhelson (both he and his company are already under sanctions) told reporters. “The main partners that Russia has - they are not going to leave, but [plan] to develop relations. I think we will love each other even more."

The topic of abandoning the dollar was recently commented on by Russian President Vladimir Putin. At a press conference after the end of the BRICS summit in Johannesburg, he said that Russia is not going to make sudden movements and abandon the dollar, including as a reserve currency. But the US sanctions are "a big strategic mistake by our American partners, because they undermine confidence in the dollar as a reserve currency." Among the promising reserve currencies, Putin mentioned the Chinese yuan.

Let's get rid of the dollar! Member of the Federation Council, Deputy Chairman of the Committee on Science Igor Morozov said that in response to US sanctions, Russia should abandon the use of the dollar and switch to payments in national currencies. This is reported by the correspondent of "Gazeta.Ru". "This will be not only our response, but also the entire world community, against which wars are unleashed," the senator is sure.

This week's events unwittingly give the impression that the US authorities have decided to undermine the stability of the Russian financial system, says Anton Bykov, chief analyst at the Center for Analytics and Financial Technologies. Yes, and the time was chosen appropriate - August is a very vulnerable month for the ruble. The ruble against the US dollar is actively moving towards the levels of 67.00-67.50 and to the euro 77.00-78.00.

Sanctions related to the Skripal case, announced yesterday, generally have plus or minus zero effect on the market, comments Oleg Achkasov, head of equity trading at BCS Global Markets. The second round, if introduced, will have a negative impact on Aeroflot - hence its fall today. Although the fall is excessive - not so much revenue from flights to the United States. He also notes that all we see now is the internal political struggle in the United States and scoring points in the elections through the anti-Russian agenda.

The exchange rate has only slightly moved from its previous positions, but another attack on the ruble is likely to be undertaken. Meanwhile, officials explain what they think is the real reason for the US sanctions. “This is an attempt to influence the market in uncompetitive ways, it is extremely harmful for the market, for consumers,” First Deputy Minister of Energy of the Russian Federation Alexei Teksler told reporters.

The market situation has stabilized after the White House came out last night with alternative sanctions proposals that do not look as economically painful as those from Congress, said Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Alfa Bank. However, the process of passing sanctions appears to the market to be extremely non-transparent. This means that the ruble will remain low for at least the coming weeks. She also recalls that the negative mood of investors is now spreading to all emerging markets - the Turkish lira remains under pressure and this dictates a cautious attitude towards other currencies.

The authorities continue to reassure markets, businesses and the public. “The current volatility in the markets is connected both with the next wave of US sanctions rhetoric against Russia, and with the unstable situation in emerging markets. The Russian economy, the balance of payments, in recent years have become much more resilient to external influences, whether it be fluctuations in the oil market or the introduction of economic restrictions. The Government of the Russian Federation and the Central Bank are monitoring the situation, they have all the necessary tools to ensure financial stability and, if necessary, will use it within the framework of the current legislation, as it has already happened, including this year,” First Deputy Prime Minister Anton told reporters. Siluanov.

So, by the middle of the day, the ruble seems to have found a balance point. Dollar - 65.9-66.1, euro 76.4-76.5. The Moscow Exchange Index is down 0.25%.

Russian parliamentarians also demonstrate calmness. Vladimir Gutenev, head of the State Duma commission on legislative support for defense industry enterprises, said that new US sanctions against Russia would stimulate import substitution and economic diversification. “The news, of course, is not joyful, but it does not cause much concern,” said Gutenev (quoted by RIA Novosti).

Press Secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov is confident in the stability of the Russian financial system. “The financial system is quite stable. This is well known to everyone. She proved her resilience in enough difficult times”, he said, commenting on the information about the new US anti-Russian sanctions. Peskov stressed that the authorities keep the financial system in good condition against the background of unpredictable actions of overseas partners.

The State Department believes that the new sanctions will affect goods worth hundreds of millions of dollars. In addition, at a special telephone briefing, it was stated that the restrictions would affect up to 70% of the Russian economy. This statement, of course, is far from Barack Obama's famous phrase "the Russian economy is torn to shreds."

The Russian Embassy in the United States also invited the US authorities to publicize the correspondence on the Skripal case. This was reported on the website of the diplomatic mission. “We reaffirmed our unwavering support for an open and transparent investigation of the crime in Salisbury and the punishment of those responsible. They offered to publicize the correspondence on this issue, ”the text of the official comment says. The embassy noted that there was no response to this proposal.

The Russian Embassy in the United States commented on the new sanctions as follows: “On August 8, our envoy adviser at the State Department was announced new “draconian” sanctions under the far-fetched pretext of “use by the government of the Russian Federation” of the Novichok nerve agent against British citizen Sergei Skripal and his daughter . No facts or evidence, as has already been customary, sounded.

Two hours after the opening of trading, the ruble went on the counterattack. The dollar rolled back to 66, the euro to 76.4.

“What are the forecasts for the recovery of the ruble? Favorable. What to do? The Central Bank of the Russian Federation has a well-tested medium-term mechanism - ruble-dollar swaps. But this is for the medium term. Today, in no case should you start exchange currency trading (stock trading is possible!) Without a thorough preliminary selection of applications for the purchase of currency. In such applications, the purpose of buying foreign currency should be clearly stated and justified, especially for amounts over $250-300 million,” says Rozhankovsky.

Yesterday's attack on the ruble is a staged trick, Vladimir Rozhankovsky, an expert at the International Financial Center, is sure. He points out that in the morning around 11:00-12:00 there were reports that the US is ready to postpone new sanctions if Russia promises to more firmly implement the chemical weapons convention. But already at 19:00 or so, it was announced that the US was imposing sanctions on Russia because of the “Skripal case”. And, around the same time, I received information that Senator Rand Paul was bringing a letter to Moscow from Donald Trump. “It is obvious (although not yet proven) that the above-mentioned absurdity is due to the fact that there was a leak of information that Trump’s letter to Putin is already on his desk, so American politicians had to break the entire logical chain, all plans,” the expert believes.

The latest reports from the exchange fronts. There are positional battles. The dollar has consolidated in the area of ​​66.2-66.3, the euro is trying to take 76.8 by storm. Shares on the Moscow Exchange lose a moderate 0.7%.

The country's isolation can reach catastrophic proportions and the economy will move from the current stagnation into a recession phase, and it can be quite protracted. Therefore, it is better to be prepared for the worst scenario than to hope for the best, does not add optimism to Ignatenko.

Sanctions will also include a ban on the issuance of licenses for the export to Russia of dual-use goods that are of great importance for national security. Restrictive measures will also affect test and calibration equipment - and, in general, system components designed for use in aviation as on-board electronics, NBC News reports. “Also [we] impose sanctions on cooperation in space, but we cooperate somewhere, and somewhere we depend. In this sense, we will consider each position separately, ”the State Department communiqué says. The first round of new sanctions will begin on 22 August. The second wave will roll in later and affect almost all exports and imports, if Russia does not give America some guarantees that various “Novichoks” will not be used and let independent observers in.

Today, the main topic will be the new sanctions, which the State Department announced yesterday, after the close of trading in Moscow. This time, the infamous Skripal case became the reason for new measures of influence against Russia. According to the State Department, Moscow is accused of violating international law due to the use of the Novichok poisoning agent in the British Salisbury in the poisoning of Yulia and Sergei Skripal. In accordance with the 1991 law, the use of biological and chemical weapons by any country is subject to restrictive measures by the United States. The measures that the United States intends to introduce relate to a ban on the export to Russia of goods related to national security: electronic devices dual purpose and their components.

In addition to the weakening of the ruble, investors, especially foreign ones, sold Russian bonds federal loan and shares of domestic companies. The Moscow Exchange index fell by 0.83%. It is far from panic in the markets, but yesterday was obviously not a success.

Investors played against the ruble against the backdrop of the previous wave of news. Senators and congressmen introduced a bill providing for a ban on the purchase by US residents of new issues of Russian debt securities, as well as a possible restriction of settlements in dollars for banks with state participation - Sberbank, VTB, VEB, Gazprombank, Rosselkhozbank, Promsvyazbank, Bank of Moscow.

On Wednesday, August 8, the ruble fell to its lowest level since November 2016. The exchange rate of the national currency stopped yesterday at 65.55 rubles per dollar and 76.13 rubles per euro. This is 2% and 2.5% higher than the previous close. But stock players did not yet know about the surprise prepared by the State Department.

against our country. They were personally introduced by Donald Trump. The sanctions will affect the ban on the supply of high technologies from America - electronics, lasers, sensors and other sophisticated equipment. Including for the sphere of oil and gas processing.

Meanwhile, leading US senators have submitted to Congress a bill on a new package of sanctions that could be introduced in 90 days if Russia does not fulfill a number of conditions. The conditions, as our Foreign Ministry has already stated, are unfeasible. New sanctions have already rushed to be called “crushing”, “hellish” and “draconian”. For example, Russian state-owned banks may be left without foreign currency accounts in the United States. Almost no one doubts that in the current situation in the US Congress, the law regarding additional sanctions will be adopted before the end of the year and will begin to be implemented from January 1, 2019.

To the question of technology

The sanctions that have just been introduced are rather demonstrative in nature and are more designed for impressionable investors who should start selling Russian stocks, bonds and flee the ruble, - says Elena Larina, Analyst at the Institute for System-Strategic Analysis. - Serious are only measures related to the further restriction of technological exports to Russia. This can especially affect the aviation industry. The Americans are not limited to banning their own enterprises from delivering to our country. At the same time, they put the question squarely before all exporters. Choose: either American or Russian market.

In addition, the new package of sanctions is aimed at a complete ban on the supply of technology to the oil and gas complex of our economy. And in our gas and oil production, American and German technologies are actively used. There is nothing to replace them in Russia. And it is still unclear how our IT industry will act in this case, since it has a lot of American components. Not only computers, but also network equipment, including routers, hotspots WiFi access, video surveillance systems, servers and much more...

However, I believe there will be no ban on the export of all American goods to Russia. In any case, soon.

Problems with banks

A possible ban on operations with state-owned banks of the Russian Federation, envisaged at the second stage, looks much more serious.

- They are afraid that Russia will be completely disconnected from the SWIFT system!

Nothing of the sort is envisaged either in the sanctions just imposed by Trump or in the new sanctions package submitted to Congress. There, the most serious proposal is to introduce a ban on transactions with American currency of the largest state-owned Russian banks, including Sberbank, VTB, VEB and Promsvyazbank. The point is the following. Any bank in the world, including Russian ones, can carry out any dollar transaction only through correspondent accounts of American banks. And the introduction of such a measure will lead to the fact that the largest Russian banks will not be able to conduct any transactions with dollars - both with physical and legal entities. In Russian business circles, it is precisely such a ban that is most feared.

It's all about American oil

- It is clear that the version about poisoning of the Skripals Russia is only a formal reason for strengthening sanctions . What is really behind this story?

You have to understand that there are very important mid-term elections in America in November. In principle, Americans are still satisfied with Trump from the point of view of the economy. But the Republican Party is in a bad pre-election business. Republicans - senators and congressmen - in no case want the impeachment of a president of the same party. But they will spread rot against Russia with sanctions along with their Democratic competitors.

- Why?

Trump is a businessman. He makes politics like a business. He came to the presidency thanks to a coalition of Wall Street bankers and oilmen. They formed the core of Trump's elite support. Accordingly, in his policy, he primarily expresses the interests of the US oil and gas complex.

Therefore, perhaps the most important factor in the round of sanctions, in my opinion, is the unprecedented growth in hydrocarbon production in America. Obama, as a representative of the new IT-economy with an ecological outlook, kept an embargo on domestic oil and gas production and categorically prohibited their export.

The very first thing Trump did when he came to the White House was to lift the embargo. And defiantly withdrew from the Paris Climate Protocol, initiated by the same Obama. Fulfilled campaign promises to the oilmen who supported him. The construction of internal oil and gas pipelines and new plants and ports for the export of oil and liquefied gas is already being completed. Main Markets - Western Europe, China and partly Japan. Now these markets are fully provided with oil and gas. In order for American fuel to enter these markets, someone needs to be thrown out of there. These "someone" are Iran and Russia.

Severe sanctions are now being introduced against them under various pretexts.

- How do you see the future of Russian-American relations? Will the sanctions pressure end?

Unfortunately no. There is a consensus in the American establishment regarding Russia. The pressure will slowly but steadily build up. This does not at all cancel the summit meetings, Trump's speeches about the desirability of normal and even friendly relations with Russia. In America, the president is not omnipotent. Especially on those issues on which there is a consensus among the elite. Therefore, for the sake of his own political survival, despite all the words, he will actually follow the sanctions course.

- What to do?

Stop saving on education, healthcare, science. Political will is needed to turn our developments (and they are!) into working technologies. And without this, it will be difficult to survive in a tough time of sanctions.

We cannot influence the big political games, but we can completely influence our own savings. Let's find out...

Sanctions were imposed on Russia two years ago. It didn't scare anyone back then. Remember, all those jokes about "Don't make my Iskanders laugh." But as time has shown, almost everyone has felt the consequences of the sanctions.

The first package of anti-Russian sanctions was introduced in mid-March 2014, when Crimea actually became part of Russia. In April and May, because of the war in eastern Ukraine, the West imposed a second round of sanctions. The third was introduced in June after the Boeing crash in the Donetsk region. The list of sanctions is huge, they mainly concern trade and visa restrictions, the refusal of civil, economic and military cooperation, and the cessation of funding for Russian organizations.

Russian presidential adviser Sergei Glazyev recently said that Russia's losses from Western sanctions over two years were estimated at $250 billion. This is 17.250 trillion rubles - 2 trillion rubles more than the all-Russian budget for 2015.

These are the main, but few, consequences that two years of sanctions and the crisis that followed them turned out to have for ordinary Russians.

EMPLOYMENT

Since the fall of 2014, employers have practically stopped looking for new employees and stopped increasing salaries. Workers began to hold on tighter to their jobs. In September of this year, the average unemployment rate in the country was 4.9%.

At the beginning of 2015, Rosstat already counted 5.5% of the unemployed (4.2 million people). And at the end of 2015 there were 5.8% (4.4 million people). So far, more than 2,200 businesses have reported that they have suspended, part-time or indefinitely furloughed employees. In total, in 2015, approximately 633.3 thousand people were laid off.

In the same 2015, FOM specialists recorded an increase in protest activity at industrial enterprises - it amounted to 45%. In six months of 2015, 189 labor protests took place at Russian enterprises.

Interestingly, there were no cuts in the oil and gas sector. In Lukoil, for example, they say that there is no reason to reduce the number of people employed in mining, processing and trading. On the contrary, they have a growing number of drilling crews. There were many cuts in small and medium-sized businesses, most of them occurred at the beginning of 2015. And by the end of 2015, they calculated where they were most laid off: in the Moscow region - up to 45% of employees, in Moscow - 30%, in Yaroslavl region- twenty%. Currently, 631,000 people are at risk of being fired.

It is important to understand here that these are official statistics, the real state of affairs is much worse.

SALARY

In 2014, the average monthly nominal salary in Russia was 32,500 rubles. In 2015, it grew to almost 34,000 rubles. The only problem is that due to inflation and the depreciation of the ruble, its purchasing power has decreased. If in 2014 it was 101.2% of the average monthly salary of the previous year (i.e. increased by 1.2%), then in 2015 it amounted to 90.7% (i.e. fell by almost 10%).

The biggest drop in the purchasing power of wages occurred in May 2014. Compared to May 2013, it amounted to 14%. The last time this happened was in 1998.

BUYING BEHAVIOR

With the imposition of sanctions and the start of a rapid rise in inflation, Russians began to spend more on food. If in developed countries people spend 12-18% of their income on food, then in our country it is 46%. At the same time, Russians have begun to become more self-employed and grow their own vegetables and fruits. In 2014, there were 39% of such people, and in 2015 there were much more of them - 46%.

Per Last year people began to spend less on household chemicals: now they buy soap, powders and shampoos of cheaper brands. Sales of white and yellow cheeses fell by 8%, but cheap sausage cheese became more popular by 24%, processed cheese - by 10%. They began to buy less meat, fish and seafood, but cereals, pasta, flour and sugar began to be in great demand. Also over the past year, trade in sales has grown by 39%.

In recent months, people have been trying not to spend their salaries, not to make large purchases, not to borrow money. Many more take savings from banks.

PRICES

With the depreciation of the ruble in Russia, food prices began to rise rapidly. Over the past two years, the inflation rate has been 24.27%, but prices for some products have risen a lot. For example, from August 2014 to August 2015, cod fillets have risen in price by 20–100% (depending on the store).

Milk went up by 10-20%, chicken by 5-15%, pork by 10-15%, sausages by 10-50%. Prices for vegetables rose sharply: cabbage went up by 13%, beets by 10-25%, carrots by 10%, bell peppers by 40-70%. It is the same with fruits: apples have become more expensive by 25–40%, bananas by 17–27%, oranges by 20–80%.

SAVING

At the end of 2015, NAFI conducted another survey. Then 48% of people said that inflation had damaged the family budget, but had no effect on nutrition. Another 37% reported that the rise in prices had a significant impact on them and they are forced to limit themselves in spending on food.

48% of Russians with the advent of the crisis refused to leave, 39% save on clothes and shoes, 38% - on visiting movies and restaurants. 23% refrain from receiving guests and relatives, 22% - from treatment, 20% - from buying the necessary food.

POVERTY

Conducting its research, VTsIOM divided all Russians into three groups:
- prosperous people who still do not feel the consequences of the crisis;
- Struggling people who have noticed that it has become worse, but are coping with trouble;
- suffering people who experience all the hardships of the crisis and can not fight it.
In November 2014, the suffering group was 16% of the adult population. By January 2015, it had increased dramatically to 47%. In October 2015, it was already 60%.

In 2013, 9% of the population (12.5 million people) had an income below the subsistence level. In 2014, they were already 14% (19.8 million), and in 2016 - 16% (about 23 million). The reasons for such rapid growth are high inflation: if in 2014 it was possible to live on 7,688 rubles, then a year later, 9,662 rubles were required.

Experts say that the bulk of the poor is the adult working-age population. Such a paradox happened due to the fact that work with low wages is very common in Russia. In order for a person to go beyond the poverty line, he must receive a salary equal to 1.5 living wages - about 15 thousand rubles. But according to statistics, about a quarter of working Russians earn less than this amount. The minimum wage in Russia is 5,965 rubles, that is, not 1.5 times more, but almost half the subsistence level.

RUBLE WEAKENING

It began in 2014 after the fall in oil prices and the introduction of anti-Russian sanctions. If on January 1, 2014 the US dollar exchange rate was 32.66 rubles, and the euro - 45.06, then from January to March 2014 the ruble weakened by 14.9%: the dollar cost more than 37 rubles, and the euro rose above 51 rubles. These were the highest figures since the 2009 crisis.

The fall of the ruble continued, and on December 15 there was a sharp collapse: the rates amounted to 64.45 and 78.87 rubles per dollar and euro. The day was dubbed "Black Monday" by the media. The next day, on Tuesday, December 16, the ruble fell even more: the dollar and euro rates reached 79 and 98 rubles. This day was called "Black Tuesday". At the end of 2014, the ruble, according to Bloomberg, became the worst currency of the year.

In 2015, the ruble weakened and strengthened, keeping within the range of 50-70 per dollar and 53-80 per euro. Under New Year the ruble again weakened strongly, and in January 2016 it updated its minimum values ​​several times since Black Tuesday in December 2014.

MOOD

After the return of Crimea to Russia and the introduction of counter-sanctions, Putin's rating has grown significantly. In August, 57% of those polled were ready to vote for him (if we exclude from the whole mass those who have not decided and who are not going to vote, then 87%). Only 15% of respondents disapproved of Putin's activities. To the question "Is the country moving in the right direction?" An affirmative answer was then given by 64% of the respondents, and a negative one by 22%.

In October 2015, 89.9% of respondents expressed their approval for Putin - this is a record figure for Russia. Such a rise in popular disposition was associated with the start of a military operation in Syria. In January 2016, the confidence rating for the president was at around 85%.

Specialists attribute a slight drop in the president's rating to the complexity of the economic situation. It does not apply specifically to the president, but to all authorities. 55% of Russians do not believe that the government has a plan to save the economy.