What are the risks of breaking diplomatic relations with Qatar? Seven countries have severed diplomatic relations with Qatar. Little significance for Syria
The countries that opposed Qatar promised not only to expel Qatari diplomats, but also to stop all land, air and sea communications with this emirate. The monarchy is also excluded from the Saudi-led coalition participating in the military intervention in Yemen (this country, by the way, also broke off diplomatic relations with Qatar).
Official Doha has already responded to the decision of those Arab states to suspend relations with Qatar, calling it without legal justification and violating Qatari sovereignty. The monarchy itself has been described as the victim of a "deceitful campaign" designed to destabilize the region.
Actively playing in the regional arena (and far beyond the borders of the Persian Gulf region and the Arabian Peninsula), Qatar has long irritated many Arab countries. In particular, with its support for the Muslim Brotherhood group (the organization is recognized as terrorist, its activities are prohibited in Russia) and Sunni Islamist groups associated with it. At the same time, the Qataris are accused of supporting pro-Iranian forces in the region. Doha has repeatedly denied accusations of sponsoring extremist groups - but few doubt the huge role that this emirate played in helping various groups of the Syrian armed opposition - including such as the terrorist Al-Nusra Front, banned in Russia.
In the recent past, Qatar itself has repeatedly made loud foreign policy moves. He broke off diplomatic relations either with Israel or with Iran. But, ironically, one of the reasons for the current diplomatic aggravation in the Gulf region was the scandalous story of the appearance at the end of May of comments from the Qatari monarch about the desirability of improving relations with Iran. (And Tehran, as you know, is a real bone in the throat for Saudi Arabia). In Qatar, this information was called “fake” and it was blamed on some hackers who hacked the website of the state news agency. Be that as it may, the Arab neighbors responded by blocking Qatar-based media, including the famous Al-Jazeera satellite network, which often criticizes the Saudi and Egyptian authorities.
Although the statements by Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Cairo and Manama to end relations with Qatar were made separately, there is a clear sense of consistency between them.
“In reality, what is happening is a reaction, which is not the first, to Qatar’s political behavior related to the fact that this country seeks to develop relations with Iran,” says Grigory KOSACH, Doctor of Historical Sciences, Professor of the Russian State University for the Humanities. – Which, on the one hand, contradicts the point of view of other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council. On the other hand, Qatar has long become a place where (as in London to a certain extent) there are representatives of all opposition movements in the Arab world - from the Muslim Brotherhood to Hamas and Syrian Islamist organizations. And this causes extreme dissatisfaction in both the Gulf States and Egypt (since Qatar still hosts some prominent figures of the Muslim Brotherhood movement. This is not a new phenomenon: in 2014 this kind events had already taken place (then Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the UAE recalled their ambassadors from Doha - “MK”). But then it was less painful: only the ambassadors were recalled. Today everything is much more serious. This is an attempt to stop Qatar and force it to follow the same path as other Gulf states. The consequences of what is happening can be very significant: a virtual blockade of Qatar has been introduced, Qatari citizens are prohibited from entering the territories of the respective countries (although an exception was made for Qataris going on Hajj to Mecca). The country finds itself in severe isolation...
At first glance, the enmity between Qatar and Saudi Arabia may seem strange - from an ideological point of view, these two Wahhabi monarchies are on the same side of the barricades on many issues. However, it is not difficult to notice the emerging rivalry between these countries for the role of leader in the Arab-Islamic world.
“When we talk about several Arab countries in this situation, the main one is Saudi Arabia,” says the head of the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Vasily KUZNETSOV. – There have long been contradictions between this country and Qatar (they existed in 2011 and later), which sometimes escalate. Qatar wants to play an independent role - and this is often seen by the Saudi authorities as destructive for the region. But I would not overestimate what happened, because we already had examples of the severance of diplomatic relations, including between these countries. In general, this often happens in the region. This is a form of showing dissatisfaction and exerting pressure.
What makes the situation even more piquant is the fact that Qatar is the location of the US Air Force Central Command base. But at the same time, it is noteworthy that the current sharp anti-Qatar steps by Riyadh and its allies were taken just a couple of weeks after Donald Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, during which arms deals worth $110 billion were concluded. We should not lose sight of that Qatar is preparing to host the FIFA World Cup in 2022.
Why are Arab countries breaking off relations with Qatar?
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi (left, foreground) and Bahrain's King Hamad bin Isa al Khalifa (right, foreground)
Bahrain is breaking off diplomatic relations with Qatar, Reuters reports citing the kingdom's state media. Manama accused Qatar of supporting terrorism and interfering in the internal affairs of Bahrain.
Air and sea communications between the countries have been suspended. Bahrain also ordered its citizens to leave Qatar within 14 days.
Qatari nationals also have two weeks to leave Bahrain, and Qatari diplomats are given 48 hours, Al Arabiya reports.
Qatar “wreaked havoc in Bahrain, blatantly violating all agreements and principles of international law, without taking into account values, rights, morals, trampling on the principles of good neighborliness and commitment to permanent relations between the Gulf countries, rejecting all previous commitments,” it notes in the statement.
In turn, Saudi Arabia broke off diplomatic relations with Qatar and stopped transport links with it. As stated in Riyadh, this step is necessary to protect the kingdom from “terrorism and extremism.” Saudi Arabia called on "all brotherly countries and companies to do the same."
Following Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, Egypt announced the severance of relations with Qatar and the cessation of communications, also accusing Doha of supporting terrorism, including the extremist organization Muslim Brotherhood.
The UAE also supported the move, stressing that Qatar is “undermining security” in the region. Qatari diplomats have been given 48 hours to leave the country.
According to RIA Novosti, the conflict between Qatar and its neighbors occurred a week after the summit of the Gulf countries and the United States in Riyadh, when the Qatar News Agency posted a speech on behalf of the emir in support of building relations with Iran. At the summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on behalf of all the guests at the meeting, condemned Iran for its hostile policies and threatened an adequate response. Later, a representative of the Qatari Foreign Ministry said that the agency's website was hacked, and the speech on behalf of the emir was published by hackers and had no relation to the Qatari leader.
However, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain found the denial unconvincing and continue to insist that the words about normalizing relations with Iran really belong to the emir. UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Anwar Gargash called on Qatar to change its policy and not repeat previous mistakes in order to restore relations with its neighbors.
A coalition led by Saudi Arabia, formed to fight rebels in Yemen, has accused Qatar of supporting the terrorist organizations Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, Al Arabiya reports.
Based on this accusation, the coalition suspended Qatar's participation in the Yemen operation.
Earlier, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the UAE announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Qatar. Air and sea communications with Doha have been suspended.
Arab countries accused Qatar of supporting terrorism and destabilizing the situation in the region. Egypt, in particular, said that Doha supports the Muslim Brotherhood.
Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State in Russia are included in the list of terrorist organizations, for participation in whose activities criminal liability is provided.
The conflict between Qatar and its neighbors occurred a week after the summit of the Gulf countries and the United States in Riyadh. The Qatar News Agency posted a speech on behalf of the emir in support of building relations with Iran. At the summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on behalf of all the guests at the meeting, condemned Iran for its hostile policies and threatened an adequate response. A representative of the Qatari Foreign Ministry said later that the agency's website was hacked, and a speech on behalf of the emir was published by hackers and had no relation to the Qatari leader.
Source Lenta.ru
MOSCOW, June 5 – RIA Novosti. A diplomatic scandal erupted in the Arab world on Monday. Four states - Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the UAE - announced in the morning the severance of diplomatic relations with Qatar, the expulsion of diplomats and ordinary citizens, and the cessation of transport links with this country. Others followed.
The reasons cited are “shaking the situation with security and stability”, actions aimed at “supporting terrorism, including terrorist groups in Yemen, such as Al-Qaeda* and *.
Qatar itself has already called the severance of diplomatic relations unjustified and rejected all accusations of interference in the affairs of other states.
The conflict between Qatar and its regional neighbors comes a week after the Gulf-US summit in Riyadh, when the Qatar News Agency posted a speech on behalf of the country's emir in support of building relations with Iran. At the summit in the capital of Saudi Arabia, the kingdom, on behalf of all the guests at the meeting, condemned Iran for its hostile policies and threatened an adequate response. Later, an official representative of the Qatari Foreign Ministry said that the agency's website was hacked, and the speech on behalf of the emir was published by hackers and had no relation to the Qatari leader.
However, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain found this denial unconvincing and continue to insist that the words about normalizing relations with Iran really belong to the emir. UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Anwar Gargash called on Qatar to change its policy and not repeat previous mistakes in order to restore relations with its neighbors.
"Chain reaction" of a relationship breakup
Bahrain was the first to announce the severance of diplomatic relations with Qatar.
“Due to Qatar’s continued destabilization of the security and stability situation in the Kingdom of Bahrain and interference in its affairs, continued escalation and provocation in the media and support for terrorist activities ... the Kingdom of Bahrain announces the severance of diplomatic relations with the State of Qatar,” the kingdom’s official news agency said on Monday morning.
Seven countries have severed diplomatic relations with QatarFirst, the expulsion of Qatari diplomats was announced in Bahrain, accusing Doha of supporting terrorism. Later, similar measures were taken by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE, Yemen, Libya and the Maldives.Following Bahrain, Egypt made a similar statement. “The government of the Arab Republic of Egypt has decided to sever diplomatic relations with Qatar due to the Qatari authorities’ continued hostile behavior towards Egypt,” said a statement from the official representative of the country’s Foreign Ministry.
Literally minutes later, Saudi Arabia and the United States announced the same measures United Arab Emirates, followed by Yemen and Libya.
Later, Cairo clarified that the decision to sever relations with Qatar was made “due to the continuation of the Qatari authorities’ hostile policy towards Egypt and the failure of all attempts to convince them to stop supporting terrorist organizations led by the Muslim Brotherhood.”
According to the Egyptian Foreign Ministry, Qatar "provides refuge to the leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood, against whom court decisions have been made for their involvement in terrorist attacks on Egyptian territory." Also, according to official Cairo, “Doha spreads the ideology of the Al-Qaeda* and IS* groups and supports terrorist attacks in the Sinai Peninsula.”
At the same time, Egypt called on all friendly countries, as well as Arab and international companies, to take measures to stop transport links with Qatar
The diplomats were given 48 hours
The announcement of the severance of diplomatic relations was logically followed by reports of the expulsion of diplomats. Bahrain gave Qatari diplomats forty-eight hours to leave the kingdom. Manama also suspended air and sea connections with Doha and banned Qatari citizens from visiting Bahrain, as well as prohibiting its citizens from residing in and visiting Qatar.
The UAE also gave Qatari diplomats 48 hours to leave the country, Al Arabiya TV reported. “The diplomatic mission of Qatar is given 48 hours to leave the country,” the channel quotes the text of the statement.
Ordinary citizens of Qatar are also being expelled from the Emirates. “Qatari citizens are prohibited from entering or transiting the UAE. Resident Qatari citizens, as well as visiting (UAE) residents of this country, are given a period of 14 days to leave the country for security reasons,” the statement reads. statement from official Abu Dhabi.
Saudi Arabia also announced similar measures. “Unfortunately, for security reasons, entry into Saudi Arabia and transit through its territory of all Qatari nationals is prohibited. Residents and those temporarily staying in Saudi Arabia are given 14 days to leave the country,” reads a statement published by the Saudi news agency SPA .
At the same time, Saudi Arabia confirms that it will “continue to provide all benefits and services to Qatari pilgrims.”
The sky is closed
The four countries that were the first to sever ties with Qatar decided not to limit themselves to statements and the expulsion of Qatari diplomats and ordinary citizens. Among other things, Saudi Arabia and Egypt have suspended land, air and sea communications with Qatar.
In turn, Bahrain announced the closure of the country's airspace to flights by Qatar's national carrier Qatar Airways.
“Bahrain is closing Bahrain’s airspace to Qatari aircraft... Qatar continues to support terrorism at all levels and acted to overthrow the legitimate government in Bahrain,” the kingdom’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
In the next 24 hours, they promise to stop transport links with Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. “Cessation of sea and air communications with Qatar for twenty-four hours and a ban on the transit of vehicles traveling to or from Qatar,” reports Al-Arabiya TV channel, citing a statement from official Abu Dhabi.
UAE national carrier Etihad Airways has confirmed it will stop flying to Qatar. “The airline will suspend flights to and from Qatar from Tuesday morning,” noted a statement from an airline representative received by RIA Novosti.
Flydubai is suspending all flights between Dubai and Doha. “From Tuesday, June 6, 2017, all flights between Dubai and Doha will be suspended,” the company said in a statement received by RIA Novosti.
No place in Yemen
In addition to all this, Qatar is excluded from the ranks of the Arab coalition in Yemen, according to a statement from its command, which is published by the Saudi SPA agency.
An armed conflict has been ongoing in Yemen since 2014, in which, on the one hand, Houthi rebels from the Shiite Ansar Allah movement and part of the army loyal to ex-President Ali Abdullah Saleh are participating, and on the other, government troops and militias loyal to President Abd Rabb Mansour Khadi. The Arab coalition led by Saudi Arabia is providing air and ground support to the authorities.
"Coalition Rule of Law Command in Yemen announces its decision to terminate the State of Qatar's participation in the coalition due to its actions aimed at supporting terrorism, including terrorist groups in Yemen such as al-Qaeda and the Islamic State." , cooperation with groups involved in the coup,” the statement said. Such actions contradict the goals of the Arab coalition in Yemen, the report notes.
It came to sports
The diplomatic scandal even reached sports. The award-winning Saudi football club Al-Ahly announced the termination of the sponsorship agreement with the national airline of Qatar, Qatar Airways, Al-Arabiya TV channel reports.
“Al-Ahly announces the termination of the sponsorship agreement with Qatar Airwais,” the TV channel quoted the club’s statement.
The Al-Ahli club is part of the top league of the Saudi football championship and has repeatedly won the national championship.
Qatar
Qatar, in turn, stated that all these measures are absolutely unjustified. “We regret the decision to sever relations... These measures are not justified in any way, they are based on allegations that have no basis,” the kingdom’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
At the same time, Qatar stated that it would do everything to “resist attempts to influence Qatari society and economy.” In addition, Doha assured that the measures taken by Arab countries will not affect the lives of citizens and residents of the country.
Qatar also rejected accusations of interfering in the internal affairs of Arab countries and supporting terrorism. “The State of Qatar is a full member of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (GCC), complies with its charter, respects the sovereignty of other states and does not interfere in their internal affairs, and also fulfills its obligations to combat terrorism and extremism,” the Foreign Ministry statement said.
However, Qatar called these actions of the countries that broke off relations with it an attempt to impose their will on Doha, which “in itself is a violation of sovereignty.” “The promotion of fabricated reasons for taking measures against a brotherly state that is part of the GCC is the best proof that there are no real reasons for such actions taken jointly with Egypt,” the document notes.
The USA is ready to reconcile
Countries outside the region have already begun to respond to the situation. US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, for example, said that Washington is ready to play its role in reconciling Qatar with Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt.
“We, of course, call on the parties to sit down together at the negotiating table and resolve these differences,” AFP quoted Tillerson as saying in Sydney.
"If there is any role we can play in terms of helping resolve the problems, we believe it is important that the Gulf Cooperation Council remains united," the US Secretary of State said.
And one of the possible “culprits” of the crisis, Iran, expressed the opinion that the situation will not contribute to resolving crises in the Middle East.
“The era of breaking diplomatic relations and closing borders... is not the way to resolve the crisis... As I said earlier, aggression and occupation will only lead to instability,” said Deputy Chief of Staff of the Iranian Presidential Administration Hamid Aboutalebi, as reported by Reuters.
Is it Trump's fault?
U.S. President Donald Trump's rhetoric against Iran is to blame for the breakdown in diplomatic relations between Arab countries and Qatar, says the director's advisor Russian Institute strategic studies, RIAC expert Elena Suponina.
“Behind the accusations against Qatar from the Arab monarchies there are other disagreements, primarily regarding the policy towards Iran. Qatar did not agree with the hard line that the Saudis took, considering it extremely dangerous. This caused discontent in Riyadh ", said the RIA Novosti expert.
According to her, “at the summit in Riyadh, the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim, was received coldly, which, oddly enough, was not noticed by the main guest of the summit, US President Donald Trump.” “The guest of the event was busy with his bellicose rhetoric against Iran, somehow not noticing that these statements of his were creating an even greater split not only between Iran on the one hand and the Arabs on the other, but also within the Arab world itself. This time, Donald’s rhetoric Trump caused a split even among the previously united Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf, united in the Cooperation Council organization,” Suponina noted.
She believes that “disagreements on Iran also result in differences in many regional conflicts, such as in Yemen and Syria, where Iran’s interests are very clearly visible.”
“Trump succeeded in something that no one else had managed before - he split this organization, which until now had tried to at least outwardly show unity and not wash dirty linen in public. The only question now is whether this will stop Trump in his harsh rhetoric in relation to Iran, will it understand that this is fraught with escalation in the Near and Middle East region, or maybe this is what the Americans need, actions based on the “divide and conquer” principle,” said the adviser to the director of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies.
She noted that this situation clearly answers the question of whether it is possible to create an Arab NATO alliance. “As recent events show, no, it’s impossible, if only because they quarreled even before the Arab NATO began to be created. But this will also lead to the fact that the fight against terrorism in the region will be weakened due to these differences,” - noted the expert.
Little significance for Syria
The situation around Qatar may also have an impact on processes throughout the region, since Doha actively took part in them. However, according to the elder research fellow Center for Arab and Islamic Studies of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Boris Dolgov, in relation to the Syrian crisis, nothing will change fundamentally.
“The confrontation between groups supported by Doha and Riyadh will continue, including armed ones. Perhaps we will see to some extent a reduction in funding from Qatar, a more veiled promotion of this funding. It is not advertised even now, especially since is not officially declared - but goes through Islamic funds, various non-governmental organizations", Dolgov told RIA Novosti.
Probably, the analyst believes, this funding will be reduced to some extent, but it “will continue.”
“As for the aggravation of the Syrian crisis or any impact on the military side of the Syrian conflict, I think the confrontation between Qatar and Saudi Arabia will not have of great importance", the interlocutor stated.
Dolgov argues that now, after a series of terrorist attacks in Europe, opinions are increasingly heard among politicians that it is necessary to take a closer look at the financial support received by radical groups whose “adherents” carry out terrorist attacks in Europe. In particular, consider the possible involvement of Gulf countries.
“This, in my opinion, also played a role. Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries that support it are trying to somehow distance themselves from these accusations,” the expert suggested.
Oil is in the black
According to Sberbank CIB analyst Valery Nesterov, the situation around Qatar should not significantly affect the implementation of the agreement to reduce oil production. However, as it became known on Monday, the Russian Ministry of Energy intends to discuss the situation with Qatar at a meeting of the monitoring committee on compliance with the agreement on reducing oil production by OPEC countries and other oil-producing countries
On May 25, OPEC states and other oil-producing countries decided to extend the agreement to reduce production by 9 months. The parties intend to discuss its implementation at a meeting in November. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar are members of OPEC and are thus parties to the deal.
“From the point of view of the implementation of the agreement to reduce oil production, this should not have much of an impact. Firstly, countries that were not friends participated in this agreement both earlier and still today. Political contradictions within OPEC have always existed, and often very sharp ones.” , Nesterov told RIA Novosti.
At the same time, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain remain interested in high oil prices, the analyst believes. “Qatar is primarily an exporter of liquefied gas; as an oil-producing country and oil exporter, it is a much less visible player in the market. Therefore, even if Qatar does not comply with the terms of the agreement, which I doubt, nothing terrible will happen. This is not a country that can decide the fate of this agreement,” Nesterov added.
But, according to him, “the emergence of another source of tension, in my opinion, is a rather serious factor that will support or push prices up.” “With regard to oil prices, this situation should play a positive role. Any aggravation of the situation in the Middle East leads to a speculative increase in oil prices,” the expert noted.
Indeed, world oil prices are rising. As of 10.01 Moscow time, August futures for Brent oil are rising in price by 0.98%, to $50.44 per barrel, July futures for WTI oil are up by 1.03%, to $48.15 per barrel.
Risks for Qatar
At the same time, Qatar’s economic situation could be significantly undermined, says Saudi political scientist Ahmed al-Faraj.
“Qatar exports up to 70% of its goods, with the vast majority of them entering the country through the only land checkpoint that exists on the border with Saudi Arabia. Qatar will suffer greatly economically, considering how many trucks with goods are now stopped due to the crossing ban Saudi border,” the expert noted on Sky News Arabia.
In addition, according to him, the national air carrier of the emirate, Qatar Airways, is up to decision taken Riyadh had the second largest number of air traffic in Saudi Arabia, and now the airline is losing this large segment of the market.
*Terrorist organization banned in Russia
On the night of June 5, Bahrain announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Qatar and its intention to interrupt air and sea communications with this country. Soon, similar statements were made by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt. According to Al Arabiya, Yemen then joined them. All these countries accused Qatar of supporting terrorist groups and trying to influence them. domestic policy in cooperation with Iran. Following them, Libyan leader General Khalifa Haftar, who opposes the UN-backed government, announced a break with Qatar. About it reports Al Jazeera. The interim government of Libya under the leadership of Prime Minister Abdullah Abdurrahman al-Thani made this decision out of solidarity, Mohammed al-Dairi, head of the Foreign Ministry of the eastern government of Libya, told Sky News Arabiya. As TASS reports, on behalf of this structure, he accused Doha of “numerous and ongoing attacks on the dignity of the Libyan people after the February 17 revolution, which has long caused indignation and anger among broad sections of Libyan society.” This decision was then supported by the Republic of Maldives, TASS reports citing Al-Arabiya.
The Qatari Foreign Ministry said a few hours later that this decision had no legitimate basis and that it violated the sovereignty of the emirate, AP reports. At the same time, the department assured that this decision will not affect the lives of ordinary citizens in any way. “Doha regrets the decision of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain to sever relations and considers this measure unjustified, based on unsubstantiated allegations,” TASS quoted the statement as saying. Doha also regrets “the closure of borders with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain.”
Allegations against Qatar
Bahrain on Monday morning accused Qatar of supporting armed terrorist groups, financing Iranian groups that are trying to carry out sabotage in Bahrain, and attempting incitement through the media. This was stated in a brief statement by the Bahrain Foreign Ministry, which was reported by the state news agency.
Riyadh via government agency The SPA accused Doha of systematically trying to divide the Saudis, undermine the kingdom's sovereignty, and support various terrorist and sectarian groups that are trying to destabilize the region. Al-Arabiya reports this. In particular, Saudi Arabia suspects Qatar of supporting the Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamic State (banned in Russia) and Al-Qaeda (banned in Russia), banned in the kingdom, and of supporting pro-Iranian terrorist groups operating in Saudi Arabia.
The UAE in its statement noted that Qatar threatens stability and security in the region and tried to manipulate the terms of previously concluded agreements between the Gulf countries.
Egypt reproached Qatar for supporting the Muslim Brotherhood.
Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt said their diplomats would leave Qatar and gave Qatari citizens two weeks to leave, Reuters reported. The UAE, Egypt and Bahrain have interrupted air and sea communications with Qatar, and Saudi Arabia has also closed the land border. Saudi Arabia, which leads the international coalition fighting Houthi rebels in Yemen, also said Qatari troops would no longer participate in the military operation.
It later became known that Doha asked its fellow citizens to leave the UAE within two weeks. According to Reuters, this was reported by the Qatari Embassy in Abu Dhabi on social networks. Those who cannot get to Qatar directly are advised to travel through Kuwait or Oman.
Air traffic and quotes
Abu Dhabi-based state airline Etihad Airways said it would suspend flights to Qatar from June 6. Al Arabiya reported that many flights were delayed and canceled at Doha International Airport. Then it became known that the Emirati companies FlyDubai and Emirates were going to suspend flights to Qatar, Reuters reports. Also from Tuesday, Air Arabia is suspending flights to Doha, which promised passengers who had already purchased tickets to reimburse ticket costs or offer flights to other destinations. Then Qatar Airways, one of the largest airlines in the region, announced through its website that it was stopping flights to Saudi Arabia, Reuters reports. The agency recalls that the company's planes regularly fly through the kingdom's airspace. According to TASS, the suspension was also reported by the Egyptian Egypt Air and Saudi Arabia. The largest airline in the Kingdom of Bahrain, Gulf Air, will suspend flights between Manama and Doha from midnight on June 6, TASS reports citing Al-Arabiya TV channel.
On this news, oil prices went up. August Brent futures on the London ICE Futures exchange reached $50.48 per barrel on Monday morning, Reuters reports. On Friday, trading closed at $49.95 per barrel. By 9.35 Moscow time, the contract price was $50.37 per barrel, by 10.58 Moscow time it had adjusted to $50.24 per barrel. The conflict has not affected oil supplies, but it creates a risk of interruptions in the export of raw materials from the region, Interfax quotes experts as saying. According to the US Department of Energy, the Strait of Hormuz, through which oil is supplied from the Middle East, accounts for about 30% of the oil supplied by sea. The Qatari stock index QE All Share collapsed by 7.6% during trading, while other market indicators – Qatar Ex and QE TR – are losing more than 7%, Interfax reports.
Possible consequences
US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson does not think that current aggravation will affect cooperation in the fight against the Islamic State, but called on the Gulf countries to resolve all differences through dialogue. As Fox News reports, the head of the State Department commented on the situation in Australia, where he is on a visit. According to him, it was noticeable that mutual distrust between these countries had been brewing for quite a long time and now it had “boiled” and reached the point where it was time to resolve all differences. “We will, of course, welcome the parties’ decision to sit down at the negotiating table to resolve their differences,” he said. The United States has several military bases in the region, including the position of the American military at the Al-Udeid airbase in Qatar. Central Command has not yet responded to a Reuters request about the possible consequences of current political decisions. The US Navy's 5th Fleet, based in Bahrain, also did not respond to the agency's request.
Closing borders and breaking diplomatic ties is not a way out of the crisis, said Hamid Aboutalebi, deputy chief of staff of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. He is convinced that aggression will result in increased instability. He is quoted by Reuters. He also suggested that the United States was behind the countries that opposed Qatar.
If the borders with Qatar are closed for a long enough time, this could affect the 2022 FIFA World Cup in that country, Christian Ulriksen, an expert on the Gulf countries of the American Baker Institute, told Reuters. His impression is that the UAE and Saudi Arabia are encouraged by the alignment of their regional interests regarding Iran and Islamists with the Trump administration's policies. “They decided to respond to Qatar’s alternative approaches, assuming that they would be supported by the US administration,” the analyst said. FIFA Reuters stated that they are in regular contact with the organizing committee of the 2022 World Cup; the organization will not make any other comments for now.
Russia does not see any big risks of the deal to reduce production by OPEC and non-OPEC countries being disrupted due to current decisions, a source close to the Russian Ministry of Energy told Interfax. “For example, Iran and Saudi Arabia broke off diplomatic relations with each other in early 2016, but this did not prevent the deal,” he said, adding that the issue would still be discussed at the next meeting of the ministerial monitoring committee in July. An official representative of the ministry declined to comment.
The Kremlin refused to comment on the accusations against Doha, Interfax reports. Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said he would not like to answer the question of whether there is any basis in these accusations. He also did not answer the question whether Russia will help Qatar, calling it incorrect. The official recalled that Russia does not interfere in the internal affairs of other states, but is interested in developing relations with the Gulf countries and advocates maintaining peace and stability there. “President Putin has repeatedly emphasized that we do not interfere and do not like it when people interfere in our affairs,” Peskov recalled. He also said that Russia values its relations with the Persian Gulf region as a whole and with different countries separately: “Investment, trade and economic cooperation, and cooperation in rather sensitive areas are actively underway.”
When asked how the situation around Qatar could affect cooperation in the fight against terrorism, Peskov noted: “Russia, as an active participant in the general process of combating international terrorism, hopes that this situation will in no way affect the general mood and determination in the fight against terrorism , the relevance, urgency and lack of alternatives of which are demonstrated by tragic events, including the recent events in London.”
History of exacerbation
The deterioration of relations in the Middle East began with the appearance on the website of the state Qatari news agency of comments on behalf of the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, about support for Iran, Hezbollah and Israel and that US President Donald Trump would not remain in power for long. Doha said the agency's website was hacked and the comments were fake and had nothing to do with the emir. However, Qatar's neighbors reacted sharply to the incident and blocked the broadcasting of Qatari media on their territories, including the Al-Jazeera TV channel. The crisis worsened after Trump's visit to the region. The AP recalls that Arab countries have long criticized Qatar for supporting radical Islamists, in particular the Sunni political movement “Muslim Brotherhood,” which is banned in the UAE and Saudi Arabia. In March 2014, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain recalled ambassadors from Doha after Qatar expressed support for Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi, who ran in the elections as a Muslim Brotherhood candidate; the ambassadors then returned to Qatar, and to maritime and The air blockade of Qatar did not reach the point.
Qatar has repeatedly denied that it funds extremists. The AP notes that the country remains the key “financial backer” of the Gaza Strip, which is now led by Hamas; Hamas leader Khaled Meshal has lived in Qatar since 2012.
Another conflict is flaring up in the Middle East. This time in the camp of pro-American Middle Eastern monarchies and their dependent satellites. A number of countries in the Muslim world, the most notable of which are Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the UAE, suddenly and decisively took up arms against Qatar. Not only the usual political and diplomatic demarches in such cases were used, but also rather decisive measures of an economic nature, bordering on a blockade. Many reasonable (and not so reasonable) versions have been put forward about the reasons for this disagreement. All versions of the reasons for what is happening can be divided into two categories: 1) scenarios involving a direct initiative of the United States or its consent; 2) scenarios assuming that the conflict occurs without the participation of the United States. One thing is clear: regardless of whether this happens on the initiative of the United States itself or without its knowledge, what is happening clearly signals the weakness of the United States.
Version: the demonstrative flogging of Qatar occurs at the initiative of the United States
There is a group of scenarios that are based on the premise that the current persecution of Qatar is organized at the instigation of the United States. Theoretically this is possible variant. The motivation for this may be political and economic reasons.
Like many other vassal or semi-colonial countries, it is significantly dependent on the mother countries, but is not directly governed by them. This is a regulated system, when the behavior of a dependent country begins to go beyond the limits established by it, a control impulse (signal) follows, which encourages to stop the deviation. If the violator does not heed the warning, his exemplary punishment follows: from soft political incentives, through economic measures to severe military beating.
The political reasons for a demonstrative tough reaction could be, for example, the actions of armed formations controlled by Qatar (organizations that are commonly called terrorist) in active theaters of combat that are undesirable for the West: sabotage of decisions sent down the chains of command from imperialist centers, evasion of assigned tasks, double game, etc. Responsibility for a series of strange inferior terrorist attacks in Western European countries, if this is not a game of Western intelligence services, can also theoretically be assigned to Qatar, according to the results of analytics.
The economic reason for the attack on Qatar could be, for example, the desire for some redistribution of the liquefied gas market (which American companies are striving for, and because of which, in particular, an active war is being waged with Gazprom pipes in order to recapture the “fat” European market). In addition, Qatar’s main supplies go to the countries of Southeast Asia, so the United States itself will not suffer direct damage from possible interruptions in raw material supplies.
There may be other logical reasons, emanating from the conflict of interests that is always present in capitalist competitive economies and politics (even between the closest allies).
What is common, however, is that until now the United States has provided the necessary coercion in a soft, semi-automatic mode. It was the United States and other Western countries that were the source of the current accumulated wealth of the Middle Eastern monarchies. These monarchies understood the hints and demands of the hegemon at a glance. In rare cases, targeted, almost surgical measures were used for those who were especially slow-witted (such as targeted killings or palace coups), which did not stretch out over time and did not attract too much attention due to everyday life. This process is clearly depicted in an intriguing artistic form, for example, in the political thriller Syriana (2005) (the politically correct title, falsely alluding to Syria, was specially chosen so as not to offend any of the loyal vassals, but in fact the film is clearly talking about one of the kingdoms of the Persian Gulf).
If the United States, in dealing with its obedient puppets, is forced to change tactics and resort to a noisy campaign, which is usually used for recalcitrant and ideologically alien regimes, then the United States is losing its grip and control, and maintaining the current state of affairs requires additional efforts.
Version: conflict with Qatar is not part of US plans
Scenarios in which mutual conflict in the camp of the West's loyal Middle Eastern allies may not be part of US plans may also be logically consistent.
From time immemorial, Middle Eastern monarchies have been in conflict with each other, here both the great economic interests of entire countries collide in the struggle for spheres of influence and dominance, as well as considerable personal ambitions (after all, this region breaks all world records in the number of kings and princes and the size of the private sector). By the way, it is precisely for this reason that Islam historically could not remain the single all-unifying religion and ideology that it was intended to be, and during the course of internecine conflicts it fell apart into many competing and opposing movements (the differences between which are often purely nominal).
Saudi Arabia, for example, claims a historical leading role in the region and in the Muslim world in general. Qatar, once a provincial province now rich and showing global ambitions, is seen as an upstart by neighboring monarchs.
This conflict of influence and ambitions had arisen between monarchies before, but usually did not go beyond demarches. Since the West, which dominated them, was interested in maintaining the current order in the camp of its allies. Recently, mutual hostility between the Saudis and Qatar again manifested itself in the form of a real mass brawl at a joint summit on oil production and the oil market (they tried to hush up the incident, but a mobile recording from an eyewitness was leaked online).
If today an open conflict arises between loyal vassals, contrary to the opinion of the United States, moving from small local skirmishes and demarches to large-scale political and economic actions (which usually precede the outbreak of full-fledged military conflicts), then this clearly signals that the deterrent mechanisms that have previously proven their effectiveness no longer work. The initiators of the conflict are no longer afraid of the US reaction or, to begin with, they are simply testing what this reaction will be. This is also a bad sign for Western dominance.
Conclusion
Now neighboring Saudi Arabia, which has the same eggs, only in profile, and on which there is no place to put a stamp, has literally opened its eyes: someone among us is spreading and supporting terrorism! It is obvious that the current denunciation of Qatar is just a plausible pretext for confrontation.
This region has always been a reserve of reaction, since it was protected by the West from any conflicts and painful social changes.
The fact that a serious conflict is brewing in the region speaks of the growing weakness of the West and specifically the United States.