The Italian bank UniCredit has started a big sale of assets. Will he sell the Russian Unicredit ba. The stability and reliability of the bank. financial analysis of unicredit bank Balance sheet structure and dynamics

I have had a similar experience in my practice. In June 2010, upon learning of the sale by Barclays Bank of fourteen of its offices in Russia, I made the assumption that, . Oh, what then began! I probably spent an hour talking with a representative of the press service of the bank. No, they didn’t shout at me, everything was very correct. But the bank was very unhappy with my article, and even consulted with lawyers on this topic.

The bankers know what happened next with Barclays Bank, I’ll tell the rest. Only 8 months passed, and in February 2011 it became known that the British one. That is, my prediction began to come true. Another 8 months pass, and in October 2011 it became known Naturally, I called that PR person and reminded her of our conversation, and she apologized.

Now, I feel like history is repeating itself. This time in relation to the Russian daughter (more precisely, the granddaughter) of the Italian bank UniCredit. Naturally, not exactly. You cannot step into the same river twice. What reason do I have to think so?

UniCredit sold a 10% stake in Poland's Bank Pekao in July 2016 for €749 million. At the same time, UniCredit sold a 10% stake in the online broker FinecoBank for 328 million euros. Shortly before these transactions, it was reported that UniCredit announced a strategic review of all assets after the appointment of a new head of the bank in an attempt to increase equity and profitability.

The bank is forced to sell assets due to its deplorable financial situation. In early August, UniCredit reported a decline in core capital in the second quarter. On the one hand, this confirmed the adequacy of the stress tests of fifty-one European banks conducted at the end of July. On the other hand, it revealed the lack of adequateness of these stress tests. However, I warned about this in my article.

According to stress tests, only with a negative (negative only in the opinion of the European Banking Regulator, aka European banking authority, or EBA) development of events by the end of 2018, UniCredit's capital adequacy will decrease to 7.1%. This value is above the minimum required. And if the negative scenario does not materialize, then the bank will be fine. As with all other banks studied.

And then it suddenly turns out that nothing bad has happened in the European economy, and the UniCredit bank has already needed additional capital. In general, the stress test from the European banking authority is a worthless letter. This is a scam, quackery, eyewash, bluff, scam, hoax, knavery, window dressing, fooling, phony. This is a swindle of gullible citizens. As I expected. Surprisingly, almost everyone bought into this lie. Including the so-called "analysts". They discussed the results of the stress test in all seriousness, although it was immediately clear to any literate person that his conditions were adjusted to a positive result.

So, nothing terrible has happened in the European economy, and the Italian bank UniCredit has problems. However, it is not surprising that Italian banks are in trouble right now. What is surprising is that they are still alive (see article). But when (exactly "when" and not "if") problems will start in the European economy, and they will definitely begin, UniCredit Bank may need much more than the 7-8 billion euros we are talking about now. Now the bank may well find buyers for its newly issued shares, and / or limit itself to selling minor stakes in small daughters and granddaughters. But when the bank begins to have real problems, then the time may come for the sale of Unicredit Bank.

Naturally, in a Russian bank today they refuse to believe in this, and refuse to say anything on this subject. The press service of Unicredit Bank stated that "UniCredit Group does not comment on such speculation, and we, as a Russian division, do not have the right to comment on any actions and intentions of the group." But this is today. Let's wait 16 months, as we did with Barclays Bank.

P.S.: By the way, in that stress test, the Austrian Raiffeisen-Landesbanken-Holding GmbH is doing even worse than the Italian UniCredit. The Raiffeisen holding, which includes this bank, is represented in Russia by Raiffeisenbank. And the Russian bank back in March 2015. And in January 2016. That is, if UniCredit is still here, then Raiffeisen is slowly starting to reduce its presence in Russia. So, I do not rule out that these banks will leave Russia at the same time, or almost at the same time.

Under the reliability of the bank we mean a set of factors under which the bank is able to fulfill its obligations, have an adequate margin of safety in crisis situations, and not violate the standards and laws established by the Bank of Russia.

It should be borne in mind that only on the basis of reporting it is impossible to accurately determine the degree of reliability of the bank, so the study below is indicative.

Bank stability is the ability to withstand any external influences. Dynamics over a certain period may show stability (either improvement or deterioration) of various indicators, which may also indicate the stability of the bank.

Joint Stock Company "UniCredit Bank" is largest by a Russian bank and ranks 9th among them in terms of net assets.

As of the reporting date (01 May 2019), the net assets of UNICREDIT BANK amounted to 1486.79 billion rubles Per year assets increased by 8.00%. Growth of net assets negative affected the return on assets ROI (data as of the nearest quarterly date April 01, 2019): net return on assets fell over the year from 3.11% before 0.46% .

In terms of services rendered, the bank mainly attracts client money and more funds legal entities (i.e. is a settlement client), and invests funds are mainly loans.

UNICREDIT BANK - subsidiary foreign bank.

UNICREDIT BANK - is on the pawn list , and the Bank of Russia accepts as collateral the bonds of the credit institution in question; has the right to work with the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation and may involve its funds in trust management, in deposits and savings for the housing provision of military personnel; has the right to work with non-state pension funds that provide mandatory pension insurance , and can attract pension savings and savings for housing for military personnel; has the right to open accounts and deposits in accordance with the law 213-FZ of July 21, 2014. , i.e. organizations of strategic importance for the military-industrial complex and security of the Russian Federation; to a credit institution appointed authorized representatives of the Bank of Russia.

Liquidity and reliability

The bank's liquid assets are those bank funds that can be quickly turned into cash in order to return them to depositor customers. To assess liquidity, consider a period of approximately 30 days, during which the bank will be able (or not able) to fulfill part of its financial obligations (because no bank can repay all obligations within 30 days). This "part" is called the "proposed outflow". Liquidity can be considered an important component of the concept of bank reliability.

Brief Structure highly liquid assets present in the form of a table:

From the table of liquid assets, we see that the amounts of cash on hand, funds on accounts with the Bank of Russia, NOSTRO correspondent accounts in banks (net), interbank loans placed for up to 30 days have changed slightly, the amounts of highly liquid securities of the Russian Federation, highly liquid securities securities of banks and governments, while the volume of highly liquid assets, taking into account discounts and adjustments (based on Ordinance No. 3269-U of May 31, 2014), increased over the year from 324.54 before 393.22 billion rubles

Structure current liabilities is shown in the following table:

During the period under review, what happened to the resource base was that the amounts of deposits of individuals with a period of more than a year, other deposits of individuals (including individual entrepreneurs) (for a period of up to 1 year), and own securities slightly changed, the amounts of deposits and other funds of legal entities (for a period of up to 1 year), interbank loans received for a period of up to 30 days, the amounts decreased significantly, incl. current funds of legal entities (excluding individual entrepreneurs), LORO correspondent accounts of banks, interest payment obligations, overdue, accounts payable and other debts, while the expected cash outflow increased over the year from 308.10 before 364.52 billion rubles

At the moment under consideration, the ratio of highly liquid assets (funds that are easily available to the bank over the next month) and the estimated outflow of current liabilities gives us the value 107.87% what says good margin of safety to overcome a possible outflow of funds from bank customers.

In correlation with this, the standards of instant (H2) and current (H3) liquidity are important for consideration, the minimum values ​​of which are set at 15% and 50%, respectively. Here we see that the H2 and H3 standards are now at sufficient level.

Now let's track the dynamics of change liquidity indicators during a year:

According to the median method (discarding sharp peaks): the sum of the norm of instant liquidity H2 during of the year quite large and tends to increase, but over the past half a year tends to decrease, the amount of the current liquidity ratio H3 during of the year tends to significant growth, but for the last half a year tends to increase, and the expert reliability of the bank during of the year tends to remain virtually unchanged, but over the past half a year tends to increase slightly.

Other coefficients for assessing the liquidity of the bank JSC UNICREDIT BANK can be seen by this link.

Structure and dynamics of the balance sheet

The volume of assets generating income for the bank is 90.11% in total assets, and the volume of interest-bearing liabilities is 81.29% in total liabilities. The volume of earning assets roughly corresponds to the average for the largest Russian banks (87%).

Structure earning assets at the moment and a year ago:

We see that the amounts of Interbank loans, Loans to legal entities, Loans to individuals, Bills of exchange changed slightly, the amounts of Investments in leasing operations and acquired rights of claim, Investments in securities, and the total amount of income assets increased by 8.9% c 1230.67 before 1339.78 billion rubles

Analytics by degree of security issued loans, as well as their structure:

An analysis of the table suggests that the bank is focusing on diversified lending, the form of security of which is property pledges. The overall level of loan collateral is quite high and possible loan defaults are likely to be offset by the amount of collateral.

Brief structure interest liabilities(i.e. for which the bank usually pays interest to the client):

We see that the amounts of Funds of banks (Interbank credit and correspondent accounts), Funds of legal entities have changed slightly. individuals, deposits of individuals. persons, and the total amount of interest liabilities increased by 11.7% c 1081.97 before 1208.68 billion rubles

The structure of assets and liabilities of the bank JSC UNICREDIT BANK can be considered in more detail.

Profitability

Profitability of sources of own funds (calculated according to balance sheet data) decreased over the year from 5.61% before 0.61% . At the same time, the return on equity ROE (calculated on forms 102 and 134) decreased over the year from 18.64% before 3.02% (here and below, data are given in percent per annum for the nearest quarterly date).

Net interest margin decreased over the year from 3.07% before 2.67% . Profitability of lending operations decreased over the year from 7.91% before 7.69% . The cost of borrowed funds has increased over the year from 4.08% before 4.43% . The cost of borrowed funds from banks increased over the year from 5.46% before 6.80% . The cost of household funds (individuals) decreased over the year from

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