The last ice age brought about the appearance of the woolly mammoth and a huge increase in the area of ​​glaciers. But it was only one of many that have cooled the Earth throughout its 4.5 billion years of history.

So, how often does the planet go through ice ages, and when should we expect the next one?

The main periods of glaciation in the history of the planet

The answer to the first question depends on whether you mean the big glaciations or the small ones that occur during these long periods. Throughout history, the Earth has experienced five major glaciations, some of them lasting hundreds of millions of years. In fact, even now, the Earth is going through a large period of glaciation, and this explains why it has polar ice.

The five main ice ages are the Huronian (2.4–2.1 billion years ago), the Cryogenian glaciation (720–635 million years ago), the Andean-Saharan (450–420 million years ago), and the late Paleozoic glaciation (335–260 million years ago) and Quaternary (2.7 million years ago to present).

These major periods of glaciation may alternate between smaller ice ages and warm periods (interglacials). At the beginning of the Quaternary glaciation (2.7-1 million years ago), these cold ice ages occurred every 41,000 years. However, in the last 800,000 years, significant ice ages have occurred less frequently, about every 100,000 years.

How does the 100,000 year cycle work?

Ice sheets grow for about 90,000 years and then begin to melt during the 10,000 year warm period. Then the process is repeated.

Given that the last ice age ended about 11,700 years ago, perhaps it's time for another one to begin?

Scientists believe that we should be experiencing another ice age right now. However, there are two factors associated with the Earth's orbit that influence the formation of warm and cold periods. Considering how much carbon dioxide we emit into the atmosphere, the next ice age won't start for at least another 100,000 years.

What causes an ice age?

The hypothesis put forward by the Serbian astronomer Milyutin Milanković explains why there are cycles of ice and interglacial periods on Earth.

As the planet revolves around the Sun, the amount of light it receives from it is affected by three factors: its inclination (which ranges from 24.5 to 22.1 degrees in a cycle of 41,000 years), its eccentricity (changing the shape of the orbit around of the Sun, which fluctuates from a near circle to an oval shape) and its wobble (one complete wobble occurs every 19-23 thousand years).

In 1976, a landmark paper in the journal Science presented evidence that these three orbital parameters explained the planet's glacial cycles.

Milankovitch's theory is that orbital cycles are predictable and very consistent in a planet's history. If the Earth is going through an ice age, then it will be covered in more or less ice, depending on these orbital cycles. But if the Earth is too warm, no change will occur, at least in regards to the growing amount of ice.

What can affect the warming of the planet?

The first gas that comes to mind is carbon dioxide. Over the past 800,000 years, carbon dioxide levels have fluctuated between 170 and 280 parts per million (meaning that out of 1 million air molecules, 280 are carbon dioxide molecules). A seemingly insignificant difference of 100 parts per million leads to the appearance of glacial and interglacial periods. But carbon dioxide levels are much higher today than they were in past fluctuations. In May 2016, carbon dioxide levels over Antarctica reached 400 parts per million.

The earth has warmed up so much before. For example, during the time of the dinosaurs, the air temperature was even higher than now. But the problem is that in today's world it is growing at a record pace, because we have released too much carbon dioxide into the atmosphere in a short time. In addition, given that emission rates are not declining to date, it can be concluded that the situation is unlikely to change in the near future.

The consequences of warming

The warming caused by the presence of this carbon dioxide will have big consequences, because even a small increase in the average temperature of the Earth can lead to drastic changes. For example, the Earth was on average only 5 degrees Celsius colder during the last ice age than it is today, but this has led to a significant change in regional temperature, the disappearance of a huge part of the flora and fauna, and the appearance of new species.

If global warming causes all of the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica to melt, ocean levels will rise by 60 meters compared to today.

What causes great ice ages?

The factors that caused long periods of glaciation, such as the Quaternary, are not as well understood by scientists. But one idea is that a massive drop in carbon dioxide levels could lead to cooler temperatures.

So, for example, according to the uplift and weathering hypothesis, when plate tectonics leads to the growth of mountain ranges, new unprotected rock appears on the surface. It is easily weathered and disintegrates when it enters the oceans. Marine organisms use these rocks to create their shells. Over time, stones and shells take carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and its level drops significantly, which leads to a period of glaciation.

Back in October 2014, Vladimir Melnikov, Chairman of the Presidium of the Tyumen Scientific Community of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said: “A long cold period is beginning in Russia.”

On the territory of Russia, the general temperature of the earth's atmosphere is gradually decreasing. According to him, all this is connected with cyclic climatic changes in the earth's atmosphere. The academician noted that a cold climate cycle had begun, and it could drag on for as much as 35 years, which is quite normal from a scientific point of view. According to experts, the cooling should have begun at the beginning of the 21st century, but due to increased solar activity, the warm cycle lasted a little.

In November 2014, a scientist collaborating with NASA predicted mass deaths and food riots.

The reason is the upcoming extremely cold 30-year period.

John L. Casey, former White House National Space Policy Advisor, President of Space and Science Research Corporation, Orlando, Fla., a climate research organization. His book debunked the theory of global warming,

Over the next 30 year cycle, extreme cold, which will be caused by the historical decline in the release of energy from the Sun, will have an impact on the whole world, the scientist stated.

There will be a mass extinction of the human population due to extreme cold and starvation (world food supplies will fall by 50%).

“The data we have is serious and reliable,” Casey said.

At the beginning of 2015, more and more experts expressed the opinion that a new “Ice Age” was already on the threshold and that even then the abnormal weather was its first manifestations.

Climate Chaos is coming. The Little Ice Age is coming.

The Space and Research Corporation (SSRC) is an independent research institute based in Orlando, Florida, USA.

The SSRC has become the leading research organization in the United States on the science and planning for the next climate change associated with the long Ice Age. The organization's particular concern is to warn the government, the media and the people to prepare for these new climate changes that will take an epoch.

In addition to the cold weather of this new climate era, the SSRC believes, as do other scientists and geologists, that there is a strong possibility of record-breaking volcanic eruptions and earthquakes occurring during the next climate change.

At the end of 2015, scientists alarmed that the world was on the brink of a 50-year Ice Age.

“Cripple blizzards, blizzards and freezing temperatures threaten humanity for the next fifty years - and possibly decades more.

Climate experts are warning of a rare cooling pattern in the North Atlantic that is setting off a chain reaction of events that will lead to a "complete" Ice Age.

The chief meteorologist said this would affect the weather for years to come.

“The long-term consequences of the change in the Gulf Stream and other currents of the Atlantic Ocean are already catastrophic,” he added.

“The Atlantic currents have slowed down and the abnormally cold waters from Greenland remain unchanged, which partially blocks the flow of warm water and correspondingly warm air to Western Europe for many years.

The climate in the region is changing, including in London, Amsterdam, Paris and Lisbon there is a constant cooling.”

The long-term forecast was made by expert Brett Anderson: “when there is such an anomaly of the atmosphere and the ocean, then the temperature will change a lot, you can be sure, and will change for many years.”

The warning comes just months after the Met Office warned that the UK was headed for another Little Ice Age.

But now, in connection with the new data that has been revealed, it can already be said that the UK is waiting for a real “full” Ice Age.”

In November 2016, a group of scientists issued a warning: Mini Ice Age is on the doorstep: you may need to move. Weather forecast from 2021 to 2027

Why you might want to give up your house and move before 2023... It all depends on where you live!
Geographic weather forecast for six years of the upcoming Mini Ice Age.

And now 2018 has arrived. Spring 2018. Residents of many cities did not feel her arrival. There are regions in Russia too, where the snow is still knee-deep. We will not give the whole mass of examples of an abnormally cold spring of this year. Only two messages in the last day.

In our article today: There will be no spring in Europe, snow will fall until mid-May.

And a message from America: Stop it! For 75 million Americans, instead of spring, winter came

Unexpectedly for White House staff, winter came again on Wednesday

Of course, you can simply blame everything on “such a year” and say that “all this is nonsense”. But world weather forecasters and climatologists no longer think so.

Now we can already say that all the predictions of those few scientists who sounded the alarm have been fully justified.

Humanity slowly entered the Little Ice Age.

Meet! Little Ice Age!

According to our correspondent from Geneva, on Monday a closed conference of weather forecasters and climatologists from all over the world started there. About 100 people participate in it. Very serious issues concerning abnormal weather and its catastrophic consequences on human life are considered. Here's what our correspondent Greg Davis tells us:

“Very little information reaches journalists so far. The conference is held behind closed doors. Few people know about her. Journalists were not allowed there. At the moment, according to the available information, we can already say that the participants of the conference made several sensational statements, came to certain conclusions and are preparing an open report on the results of the conference.

Yesterday, one of the participants, a well-known weather forecaster from the United States (I won't give his last name, because they are not yet allowed to make official statements), gave a short interview on the rights of anonymity for one of the largest Swiss newspapers, the Tribune de Geneve.

... He said that the conference considered a number of issues related to global climate change. The conference participants completely abandoned the “global warming” hypothesis and recognized it as false. Having considered the latest results of research by specialists from all over the world, it was concluded that the planet is rapidly sinking into the cold period and this will lead to catastrophic consequences for human life…

Interestingly ended, this is a small interview. When the Tribune de Geneve journalist was already saying goodbye to this conference participant, he asked him a question: “What would you call the article with my interview?” To which the journalist replied that he did not know yet. Then the weatherman said to him: “make the title like this: Meet! Little Ice Age!”.

That's about all we know here so far. We are waiting for the publication of the report.“

Russian scientists promise that in 2014 the world will begin an ice age. Vladimir Bashkin, head of the Gazprom VNIIGAZ laboratory, and Rauf Galiullin, researcher at the Institute for Fundamental Problems of Biology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, argue that there will be no global warming. According to scientists, warm winters are the result of cyclical activity of the sun and cyclical climate change. This warming has continued from the 18th century to the present, and next year the Earth will begin to cool again.

The Little Ice Age will begin gradually and last at least two centuries. The decrease in temperature will reach its peak by the middle of the 21st century.

At the same time, scientists say that the anthropogenic factor - human impact on the environment - does not play such a big role in climate change as is commonly thought. Business in marketing, Bashkin and Galiullin consider, and the promise of cold weather every year is only a way to inflate the price of fuel.

Pandora's Box - The Little Ice Age in the 21st century.

In the next 20-50 years, we are threatened by the Little Ice Age, because it has already happened before and must come again. Researchers believe that the onset of the Little Ice Age was associated with a slowdown in the Gulf Stream around 1300. In the 1310s, Western Europe, judging by the chronicles, experienced a real ecological catastrophe. According to the French Chronicle of Matthew of Paris, the traditionally warm summer of 1311 was followed by four gloomy and rainy summers of 1312-1315. Heavy rains and unusually harsh winters have killed several crops and frozen orchards in England, Scotland, northern France and Germany. Viticulture and wine production ceased in Scotland and northern Germany. Winter frosts began to hit even northern Italy. F. Petrarch and J. Boccaccio recorded that in the XIV century. snow often fell in Italy. A direct consequence of the first phase of the MLP was the massive famine in the first half of the 14th century. Indirectly - the crisis of the feudal economy, the resumption of corvee and major peasant uprisings in Western Europe. In the Russian lands, the first phase of the MLP made itself felt in the form of a series of “rainy years” of the 14th century.

From about the 1370s, temperatures in Western Europe began to slowly rise, mass famine and crop failures ceased. However, cold, rainy summers were a frequent occurrence throughout the 15th century. In winter, snowfalls and frosts were often observed in southern Europe. Relative warming began only in the 1440s, and it immediately led to the rise of agriculture. However, the temperatures of the previous climatic optimum have not been restored. For Western and Central Europe, snowy winters became commonplace, and the period of "golden autumn" began in September.

What is it that affects the climate? Turns out it's the sun! Back in the 18th century, when sufficiently powerful telescopes appeared, astronomers noticed that the number of sunspots on the Sun increased and decreased with a certain periodicity. This phenomenon is called cycles of solar activity. They also found out their average duration - 11 years (the Schwabe-Wolf cycle). Later, longer cycles were also discovered: a 22-year (Hale cycle) associated with a change in the polarity of the solar magnetic field, a "secular" Gleissberg cycle lasting about 80-90 years, and a 200-year (Süss cycle). It is believed that there is even a cycle of 2400 years.

"The fact is that longer cycles, for example, secular ones, modulating the amplitude of the 11-year cycle, lead to the emergence of grandiose minima," said Yury Nagovitsyn. There are several known to modern science: the Wolf minimum (early 14th century), the Sperer minimum (second half of the 15th century) and the Maunder minimum (second half of the 17th century).

Scientists have suggested that the end of the 23rd cycle, in all likelihood, coincides with the end of the secular cycle of solar activity, the maximum of which was in 1957. This, in particular, is evidenced by the curve of relative Wolf numbers, which has approached its minimum mark in recent years. Indirect evidence of the superposition is the delay of the 11-year-old. Comparing the facts, scientists realized that, apparently, a combination of factors indicates an approaching grandiose minimum. Therefore, if in the 23rd cycle the activity of the Sun was about 120 relative Wolf numbers, then in the next it should be about 90-100 units, astrophysicists suggest. Further activity will decrease even more.

The fact is that longer cycles, for example, secular ones, modulating the amplitude of the 11-year cycle, lead to the appearance of grandiose minima, the last of which occurred in the 14th century. What are the consequences for the Earth? It turns out that it was during the grandiose maxima and minima of solar activity on Earth that large temperature anomalies were observed.

The climate is a very complicated thing, it is very difficult to trace all its changes, all the more so on a global scale, but as scientists suggest, the greenhouse gases that bring the vital activity of mankind slowed down the arrival of the Little Ice Age a little, besides, the world ocean, having accumulated part of the heat over the past decades, is also delaying the process the beginning of the Little Ice Age, giving off a little bit of its heat. As it turned out later, vegetation on our planet absorbs excess carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) well. The main influence on the climate of our planet is still exerted by the Sun, and we cannot do anything about it.

Of course, nothing catastrophic will happen, but in this case, part of the northern regions of Russia may become completely unsuitable for life, oil production in the north of the Russian Federation may cease altogether.

In my opinion, the beginning of a decrease in global temperature can already be expected in 2014-2015. In 2035-2045, the solar luminosity will reach a minimum, and after that, with a delay of 15-20 years, the next climate minimum will come - a deep cooling of the Earth's climate.

News about the end of the world » The Earth is threatened by a new ice age.

Scientists predict a decline in solar activity that may occur over the next 10 years. The consequence of this may be a repetition of the so-called "Little Ice Age", which happened in the XVII century, writes Times.

According to scientists, the frequency of sunspots in the coming years may decrease significantly.

The cycle of formation of new sunspots that affect the temperature of the Earth is 11 years. However, employees of the American National Observatory suggest that the next cycle may be very late or not happen at all. According to the most optimistic forecasts, they argue, a new cycle could begin in 2020-21.

Scientists are speculating whether the change in solar activity will lead to a second "Maunder Low" - a period of sharp decline in solar activity that lasted 70 years, from 1645 to 1715. During this time, also known as the "Little Ice Age", the river Thames was covered with almost 30 meters of ice, on which horse-drawn cabs successfully traveled from Whitehall to London Bridge.

According to researchers, the decline in solar activity can lead to the fact that the average temperature on the planet will drop by 0.5 degrees. However, most scientists believe that it is too early to sound the alarm. During the "Little Ice Age" in the XVII century, the air temperature dropped significantly only in the north-west of Europe, and even then only by 4 degrees. On the rest of the planet, the temperature dropped by only half a degree.

The Second Coming of the Little Ice Age

In historical time, Europe has already once experienced a prolonged anomalous cooling.

Abnormally severe frosts that reigned in Europe at the end of January almost led to a full-scale collapse in many Western countries. Due to heavy snowfalls, many highways were blocked, power supply was interrupted, and aircraft reception at airports was canceled. Due to frost (in the Czech Republic, for example, reaching -39 degrees), classes in schools, exhibitions and sports matches are canceled. In the first 10 days of extreme frosts in Europe alone, more than 600 people died from them.

For the first time in many years, the Danube froze from the Black Sea to Vienna (the ice there reaches 15 cm thick), blocking hundreds of ships. To prevent the freezing of the Seine in Paris, an icebreaker that had long been idle was launched into the water. Ice has blocked the canals of Venice and the Netherlands; in Amsterdam, skaters and cyclists ride on its frozen waterways.

The situation for modern Europe is extraordinary. However, looking at famous works of European art of the 16th-18th centuries or in records of the weather of those years, we learn that the freezing of canals in the Netherlands, the Venetian lagoon or the Seine was a rather frequent phenomenon for that time. The end of the 18th century was especially extreme.

Thus, the year 1788 was remembered by Russia and Ukraine as the "great winter", accompanied throughout their European part by "extraordinary cold, storms and snow". In Western Europe in December of the same year, a record temperature of -37 degrees was recorded. Birds froze on the fly. The Venetian lagoon froze over, and the townspeople skated along its entire length. In 1795, the ice bound the shores of the Netherlands with such force that an entire military squadron was captured in it, which was then surrounded by ice from land by a French cavalry squadron. In Paris that year, frosts reached -23 degrees.

Paleoclimatologists (historians who study climate change) call the period from the second half of the 16th century to the beginning of the 19th century the “Little Ice Age” (A.S. Monin, Yu.A. epoch" (E. Le Roy Ladurie "History of climate since 1000". L., 1971). They note that during that period there were not individual cold winters, but in general a decrease in temperature on Earth.

Le Roy Ladurie analyzed data on the expansion of glaciers in the Alps and the Carpathians. He points to the following fact: the gold mines developed in the middle of the 15th century in the High Tatras in 1570 were covered with ice 20 m thick, in the 18th century the thickness of the ice there was already 100 m. By 1875, despite the widespread retreat throughout the 19th century and the melting of glaciers, the thickness of the glacier over the medieval mines in the High Tatras was still 40 m. At the same time, as the French paleoclimatologist notes, the onset of glaciers began in the French Alps. In the commune of Chamonix-Mont-Blanc, in the mountains of Savoy, "the advance of the glaciers definitely began in 1570-1580."

Le Roy Ladurie gives similar examples with exact dates in other places in the Alps. In Switzerland, evidence of the expansion of a glacier in the Swiss Grindelwald dates back to 1588, and in 1589 a glacier descended from the mountains blocked the valley of the Saas River. In the Pennine Alps (in Italy near the border with Switzerland and France) in 1594–1595, a noticeable expansion of glaciers was also noted. “In the Eastern Alps (Tyrol, etc.), glaciers advance in the same way and simultaneously. The first information about this dates back to 1595, writes Le Roy Ladurie. And he adds: “In 1599-1600, the glacier development curve reached its peak for the entire region of the Alps.” Since that time, in written sources, there have been endless complaints from the inhabitants of mountain villages that glaciers are burying their pastures, fields and houses under them, thus erasing entire settlements from the face of the earth. In the XVII century, the expansion of glaciers continues.

This is consistent with the expansion of glaciers in Iceland, starting from the end of the 16th century and throughout the 17th century advancing on settlements. As a result, Le Roy Ladurie states, “Scandinavian glaciers, synchronously with Alpine glaciers and glaciers from other regions of the world, have experienced the first, well-defined historical maximum since 1695,” and “in subsequent years they will begin to advance again.” This continued until the middle of the 18th century.

The thickness of the glaciers of those centuries can indeed be called historical. On the graph of changes in the thickness of glaciers in Iceland and Norway over the past 10 thousand years, published in the book by Andrey Monin and Yuri Shishkov "The History of Climate", it is clearly seen how the thickness of glaciers, which began to grow around 1600, by 1750 reached the level at which the glaciers kept in Europe during the period of 8-5 thousand years BC.

Is it any wonder that since the 1560s, contemporaries have recorded in Europe over and over again extraordinary cold winters, which were accompanied by the freezing of large rivers and reservoirs? These cases are indicated, for example, in the book by Yevgeny Borisenkov and Vasily Pasetsky “A Millennial Chronicle of Unusual Natural Phenomena” (M., 1988). In December 1564, the powerful Scheldt in the Netherlands completely froze over and stood under the ice until the end of the first week of January 1565. The same cold winter was repeated in 1594/95, when the Scheldt and the Rhine froze over. The seas and straits froze: in 1580 and 1658 - the Baltic Sea, in 1620/21 - the Black Sea and the Bosporus Strait, in 1659 - the Great Belt Strait between the Baltic and North Seas (the minimum width of which is 3.7 km).

The end of the 17th century, when, according to Le Roy Ladurie, the thickness of glaciers in Europe reaches a historical maximum, was marked by crop failures due to prolonged severe frosts. As noted in the book by Borisenkov and Pasetsky: “The years 1692-1699 were marked in Western Europe by continuous crop failures and hunger strikes.”

One of the worst winters of the Little Ice Age occurred in January-February 1709. Reading the description of those historical events, you involuntarily try them on modern ones: “From an extraordinary cold, such as neither grandfathers nor great-grandfathers remembered ... the inhabitants of Russia and Western Europe died. Birds flying through the air froze. In general, in Europe, many thousands of people, animals and trees died. In the vicinity of Venice, the Adriatic Sea was covered with stagnant ice. The coastal waters of England were covered with ice. Frozen Seine, Thames. The ice on the Meuse River reached 1.5 m. The frosts were just as great in the eastern part of North America. The winters of 1739/40, 1787/88 and 1788/89 were no less severe.

In the 19th century, the Little Ice Age gave way to warming and harsh winters are a thing of the past. Is he coming back now?

We are at the mercy of autumn and it's getting colder. Are we moving towards an ice age, one of the readers wonders.

The fleeting Danish summer is behind us. The leaves are falling from the trees, the birds are flying south, it's getting darker and, of course, colder too.

Our reader Lars Petersen from Copenhagen has begun to prepare for the cold days. And he wants to know how seriously he needs to prepare.

“When does the next ice age start? I learned that glacial and interglacial periods alternate regularly. Since we live in an interglacial period, it is logical to assume that the next ice age is ahead of us, right? he writes in a letter to the Ask Science section (Spørg Videnskaben).

We in the editorial office shudder at the thought of the cold winter that lies in wait for us at that end of autumn. We, too, would love to know if we are on the verge of an ice age.

The next ice age is still far away

Therefore, we addressed Sune Olander Rasmussen, lecturer at the Center for Basic Ice and Climate Research at the University of Copenhagen.

Sune Rasmussen studies the cold and gets information about past weather, storms, Greenland glaciers and icebergs. In addition, he can use his knowledge in order to fulfill the role of "foreteller of ice ages."

“In order for an ice age to occur, several conditions must coincide. We cannot accurately predict when the ice age will begin, but even if humanity did not further influence the climate, our forecast is that the conditions for it will develop in the best case in 40-50 thousand years,” Sune Rasmussen reassures us.

Since we are still talking to the “Ice Age predictor”, we can get some more information about what these “conditions” are in question in order to understand a little more about what the Ice Age actually is.

What is an ice age

Sune Rasmussen relates that during the last ice age the earth's average temperature was a few degrees cooler than it is today, and that the climate at higher latitudes was colder.

Much of the northern hemisphere was covered in massive ice sheets. For example, Scandinavia, Canada and some other parts of North America were covered with a three-kilometer ice sheet.

The huge weight of the ice cover pressed the earth's crust a kilometer into the Earth.

Ice ages are longer than interglacials

However, 19 thousand years ago, changes in the climate began to occur.

This meant that the Earth gradually became warmer, and over the next 7,000 years, freed itself from the cold grip of the Ice Age. After that, the interglacial period began, in which we are now.

Context

New ice age? Not soon

The New York Times June 10, 2004

ice Age

Ukrainian truth 25.12.2006 In Greenland, the last remnants of the shell came off very abruptly 11,700 years ago, or to be precise, 11,715 years ago. This is evidenced by the studies of Sune Rasmussen and his colleagues.

This means that 11,715 years have passed since the last ice age, and this is a completely normal interglacial length.

“It's funny that we usually think of the Ice Age as an 'event', when in fact it's just the opposite. The middle ice age lasts 100 thousand years, while the interglacial lasts from 10 to 30 thousand years. That is, the Earth is more often in an ice age than vice versa.

“The last couple of interglacials lasted only about 10,000 years each, which explains the widely held but erroneous belief that our current interglacial is nearing its end,” says Sune Rasmussen.

Three Factors Influence the Possibility of an Ice Age

The fact that the Earth will plunge into a new ice age in 40-50 thousand years depends on the fact that there are small variations in the orbit of the Earth around the Sun. Variations determine how much sunlight hits which latitudes, and thereby affects how warm or cold it is.

This discovery was made by the Serbian geophysicist Milutin Milanković almost 100 years ago and is therefore known as the Milanković cycle.

Milankovitch cycles are:

1. The orbit of the Earth around the Sun, which changes cyclically about once every 100,000 years. The orbit changes from nearly circular to more elliptical, and then back again. Because of this, the distance to the Sun changes. The farther the Earth is from the Sun, the less solar radiation our planet receives. In addition, when the shape of the orbit changes, so does the length of the seasons.

2. The tilt of the earth's axis, which fluctuates between 22 and 24.5 degrees relative to the orbit of rotation around the sun. This cycle spans approximately 41,000 years. 22 or 24.5 degrees - it seems not such a significant difference, but the tilt of the axis greatly affects the severity of the different seasons. The more the Earth is tilted, the greater the difference between winter and summer. The Earth's axial tilt is currently at 23.5 and is decreasing, which means that differences between winter and summer will decrease over the next thousand years.

3. The direction of the earth's axis relative to space. The direction changes cyclically with a period of 26 thousand years.

“The combination of these three factors determines whether there are prerequisites for the beginning of the ice age. It is almost impossible to imagine how these three factors interact, but with the help of mathematical models we can calculate how much solar radiation receives certain latitudes at certain times of the year, as well as received in the past and will receive in the future,” says Sune Rasmussen.

Snow in summer leads to ice age

Summer temperatures play a particularly important role in this context.

Milankovitch realized that for the ice age to start, summers in the northern hemisphere would have to be cold.

If winters are snowy and most of the northern hemisphere is covered in snow, then temperatures and hours of sunshine in summer determine whether snow is allowed to remain all summer.

“If the snow does not melt in the summer, then little sunlight penetrates the Earth. The rest is reflected back into space in a snow-white veil. This exacerbates the cooling that began due to a change in the orbit of the Earth around the Sun,” says Sune Rasmussen.

“Further cooling brings even more snow, which further reduces the amount of absorbed heat, and so on, until the ice age begins,” he continues.

Similarly, a period of hot summers leads to the end of the Ice Age. The hot sun then melts the ice enough so that sunlight can again reach dark surfaces like soil or the sea, which absorb it and warm the Earth.

Humans are delaying the next ice age

Another factor that is relevant to the possibility of an ice age is the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

Just as snow that reflects light increases the formation of ice or accelerates its melting, the increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere from 180 ppm to 280 ppm (parts per million) helped bring the Earth out of the last ice age.

However, ever since industrialization began, people have been pushing the CO2 share further, so that it is now almost 400 ppm.

“It took nature 7,000 years to raise the share of carbon dioxide by 100 ppm after the end of the ice age. Humans have managed to do the same in just 150 years. This is of great importance for whether the Earth can enter a new ice age. This is a very significant influence, which means not only that an ice age cannot begin at the moment,” says Sune Rasmussen.

We thank Lars Petersen for the good question and send the winter gray T-shirt to Copenhagen. We also thank Sune Rasmussen for the good answer.

We also encourage our readers to submit more scientific questions to [email protected]

Did you know?

Scientists always talk about the ice age only in the northern hemisphere of the planet. The reason is that there is too little land in the southern hemisphere on which a massive layer of snow and ice can lie.

With the exception of Antarctica, the entire southern part of the southern hemisphere is covered with water, which does not provide good conditions for the formation of a thick ice shell.

The materials of InoSMI contain only assessments of foreign media and do not reflect the position of the editors of InoSMI.

Prior to this, scientists for decades predicted the imminent onset of global warming on Earth, due to industrial human activity, and assured that "there would be no winter." Today, the situation seems to have changed dramatically. Some scientists believe that a new ice age is beginning on Earth.

This sensational theory belongs to an oceanologist from Japan - Mototake Nakamura. According to him, starting from 2015, the Earth will begin to cool. His point of view is also supported by a Russian scientist, Khababullo Abdusammatov from the Pulkovo Observatory. Recall that the last decade was the warmest for the entire period of meteorological observations, i.e. since 1850.

Scientists believe that already in 2015 there will be a decrease in solar activity, which will lead to climate change and its cooling. The temperature of the ocean will decrease, the amount of ice will increase, and the overall temperature will drop significantly.

Cooling will reach its maximum in 2055. From this moment, a new ice age will begin, which will last 2 centuries. Scientists have not specified how severe the icing will be.

There is a positive point in all this, it seems that polar bears are no longer threatened with extinction)

Let's try to figure it all out.

1 Ice Ages can last hundreds of millions of years. The climate at this time is colder, continental glaciers are formed.

For example:

Paleozoic Ice Age - 460-230 Ma
Cenozoic Ice Age - 65 million years ago - present.

It turns out that in the period between: 230 million years ago and 65 million years ago, it was much warmer than now, and we live in the Cenozoic Ice Age today. Well, we figured out the eras.

2 The temperature during the ice age is not uniform, but also changes. Ice ages can be distinguished within an ice age.

ice Age(from Wikipedia) - a periodically repeating stage in the geological history of the Earth lasting several million years, during which, against the background of a general relative cooling of the climate, repeated sharp growths of continental ice sheets - ice ages occur. These epochs, in turn, alternate with relative warmings - epochs of glaciation reduction (interglacials).

Those. we get a nesting doll, and inside the cold ice age, there are even colder segments, when the glacier covers the continents from above - ice ages.

We live in the Quaternary Ice Age. But thank God during the interglacial.

The last ice age (Vistula glaciation) began ca. 110 thousand years ago and ended around 9700-9600 BC. e. And this is not so long ago! 26-20 thousand years ago, the volume of ice was at its maximum. Therefore, in principle, there will definitely be another glaciation, the only question is when exactly.

Map of the Earth 18 thousand years ago. As you can see, the glacier covered Scandinavia, Great Britain and Canada. Note also the fact that the level of the ocean has dropped and many parts of the earth's surface have risen out of the water, now under water.

The same card, only for Russia.

Perhaps the scientists are right, and we will be able to observe with our own eyes how new lands protrude from under the water, and the glacier takes the northern territories for itself.

Come to think of it, the weather has been pretty stormy lately. Snow fell in Egypt, Libya, Syria and Israel for the first time in 120 years. There was even snow in tropical Vietnam. In the USA for the first time in 100 years, and the temperature dropped to a record -50 degrees Celsius. And all this against the backdrop of positive temperatures in Moscow.

The main thing is to prepare well for the ice age. Buy a site in the southern latitudes, away from big cities (there are always full of hungry people during natural disasters). Make an underground bunker there with food supplies for years, buy weapons for self-defense and prepare for life in the style of Survival horror))