What time will the meteorite hit the ground today? What will happen to the Earth if a meteorite or asteroid falls on it. Tens of meters - small asteroids
Incredible facts
For the vast majority of people, apocalyptic scenarios of asteroids falling on our planet are the result of the imagination of science fiction writers. However, common sense suggests that such an event will happen, sooner or later.
And very soon, October 12, 2017, asteroid 2012 TC4 will pass quite dangerously close to our planet. Despite the fact that the chances of a collision with the Earth are extremely small ( about 0.00055%), such a turn of events cannot be completely ruled out.
Asteroid of 2017
What is known about asteroid 2012 TC4
July 27 and 31, and then 5th of August this year, specialists from the European Space Research Agency observed an asteroid approaching Earth 2012 TS4. The observation was carried out using a complex of 8.2-meter telescopesEuropean southern observatory.
We are talking about the first observations of this small asteroid since its first discovery - that is,from October 4, 2012. At the time of the last observation, asteroid 2012 TC4 was still very far from our planet, at a distance of about 56 million kilometers.
WITHIn 2012, this TC4 could not be observed from Earth. The fact is that the apparent magnitude (that is, a measure of the brightness of a celestial body) of this asteroid was 26,4 , which is very, very small (for example, for the brightest celestial bodies, including the Sun, negative values this measure).
An object with a similar magnitude value in 60 billion times fainter than the planet Saturn when observed from Earth. The asteroid is approaching at speed 14 kilometersper second, becoming lighter. At its closest approach to Earth, the apparent magnitude of asteroid 2012 TC4 will be only 13.
Recent observations of the asteroid have made it possible to clarify information about its size ( from 12 to 27 meters in diameter) and location, and also provided an opportunity for scientists fromCenter research near-Earth objects(CNEOS) NASA(National Aeronautics and Space Administration) to calculate its future orbit and the distance at which it will fly past our planet at the moment of its closest approach to it.
The obtained calculation results indicate that the closest approachasteroid 2012 TC4 will happen to Earth October 12 this year: the space object will fly at a distance equal to 43500 kilometers from our planet (this is about one-eighth of the distance of the Moon from the Earth). There are also less optimistic forecasts, which, however, are not intended to cause panic: according to them, the space object will not approach the Earth closer than a distance of 6800 kilometers.
Where will the asteroid hit on October 12?
Why is this event interesting?
NASA scientists are eagerly anticipating the upcoming asteroid flyby, planning to use the event as an opportunity test NASA's network of observatories, who are working on a planetary defense program. As part of the program for tracking objects potentially dangerous to our planet, further observations of the asteroid are planned both by NASA and by other astronomers.
Michael Kelly(Michael Kelley) , director of the TC4 asteroid monitoring program at NASA headquarters, emphasized that today the efforts of scientists are aimed at studying this asteroid in order to test the operation of the worldwide asteroid tracking network. According to him, this will make it possible to assess the possibility of identifying a potential real threat from such space objects, as well as assess the ability to respond.
An asteroid is approaching Earth
Is it possible to prevent the threat of a collision in the future?
In order to prevent the threat of an asteroid collision with our planet, it is necessary to detect the corresponding space object in a few years before the expected fall.
Objects with diameter up to several hundred meters They are unlikely to cause a global catastrophe, although they can cause significant destruction if they hit infrastructure.
Another thing is asteroids with a diameter several kilometers: the fall of such an object to Earth with a high probability can lead to a global catastrophe with subsequent mass extinction of all living things.
At the moment, the activities of many planetary defense programs are reduced to the observation and identification of potentially dangerous space objects. Moreover, they began to catalog these objects back in 1947 when was founded Minor Planet Center at the University of Cincinnati, USA.
Today we can talk about a dozen programs tracking near-Earth objects as part of a global project called "Space Security Monitor", however, in reality these programs are loosely related to each other.
It turns out that humanity today is absolutely defenseless against the threat of the fall of a large space object, which could threaten the death of all living things? Alas, this is true. However, a start has been made, future programs are being developed, telescopes are being built, high-precision tracking systems.
And now we can talk about the successful results of this work, which made it possible to predict the time and place of the fall of a space object before its entry into the Earth’s atmosphere.
October 6, 2006 telescope "Catalina Sky Survey" located in Arizona, USA, an asteroid was recorded approaching Earth 2008 TS3. Thanks to the data obtained, appropriate calculations were carried out, which made it possible to accurately determine the time and place of the asteroid fall: a space object with a diameter of 4 meters fell through 19 hours after being discovered in northern Sudan, in the Nubian Desert. If the asteroid had chosen a large city as its impact site, 19 hours could have been enough to evacuate residential areas at the expected impact site.
Another question is what humanity is capable of countering the threat from the sky, provided its early recognition? Now, essentially, nothing. However, intensive work is underway to develop potential options for repelling the threat, among which we can mention the detonation of a nuclear explosive device (the topic is covered in the blockbuster "Armageddon"), the so-called kinetic ram (a huge artificial object crashing into a small asteroid), an asteroid gravity tug, focused solar energy, an electromagnetic catapult and a number of other options.
Fallen asteroids
Why couldn't they detect the Chelyabinsk meteorite before it entered the atmosphere?
September 1this year, NASA experts observed the approach of the largest space object in the history of observations - asteroid (3122) Florence. The fall of this object onto the surface of our planet would hardly leave any chance for its inhabitants.
However, Florence passed at a distance of about 7 million kilometers from the earth. It is reported that asteroids with a diameter of up to 10 meters. Why then did the approach of the famous Chelyabinsk meteorite, the diameter of which was, according to various estimates, from 17 to 20 meters?
Asteroids that in the future may approach the Earth at a distance of 7.5 million km are considered potentially dangerous to the Earth. Our planet has collided with these cosmic bodies more than once. Today we will talk about how dangerous it is for an asteroid to fall to Earth and is there a likelihood of a large-scale catastrophe in the foreseeable future? First, a little historical background.
An asteroid (from Greek “like a star,” “star”) is also called a minor planet. It is a celestial body whose size exceeds 30 km. Some of them have their own satellites. Many asteroids travel through our solar system. 3.5 million years ago, a huge number of asteroids fell on Earth, which led to global changes.
Traces of an ancient asteroid
In the spring of 2016, geologists in Australia discovered traces of an asteroid impact, the diameter of which was about 30-40 km. That is, it is comparable in size to a small satellite. The fall caused an 11-magnitude earthquake, a tsunami and widespread destruction. It was probably one of the asteroids, as a result of which not only the beginnings of life were formed on earth, but also the entire diversity of the biosphere.
There is also an opinion that the mysterious disappearance of dinosaurs occurred due to the fall of a large asteroid to Earth. Although this is just one of many versions...
This is interesting! The ancient impact was formed as a result of an encounter with a meteorite. Its depth once reached 20 km. The meteorite impact caused a tsunami and climate change similar to a nuclear winter. In addition, the temperature on Earth could drop by 26 degrees for up to 16 years.
Chelyabinsk meteorite
The fall of an asteroid to Earth in February 2013 became one of the most discussed incidents not only in Russia, but throughout the world. The asteroid, whose mass reached 16 tons, partially burned up in the Earth’s atmosphere, but a relatively small part of it fell near Chelyabinsk, fortunately, flying over it.
That year it flew over the Ural city, which served as the basis for its name. The body itself turned out to be quite ordinary and consisted of chondrites, but the time and place of its fall aroused interest. None of the asteroids that fell to Earth caused such damage, since they did not fall so close to a densely populated area. The meteorite's mass was 6 tons. Falling into the lake caused broken glass in 7,000 buildings. 112 people were hospitalized with burns, and several more people turned to doctors for help. In total, the shock wave covered 6.5 thousand square meters.
The enormous damage caused by the asteroid could have been much more significant if the celestial stone had fallen not into the water, but onto land. Fortunately, the fall of the asteroid to the earth did not turn into a large-scale disaster.
What is dangerous about a large meteorite falling to Earth?
According to scientists' calculations, the fall of an asteroid to Earth can lead to enormous damage if a body about 1 km in size falls onto the Earth's land. First of all, a funnel with a diameter of approximately 15 km will form, which will cause dust to enter the atmosphere. And this, in turn, can lead to large-scale fires. Dust, heated by the sun, will reduce ozone levels, speed up chemical reactions in the stratosphere, and reduce the amount of sunlight reaching the surface of the planet.
Thus, the consequences of an asteroid falling to Earth are very serious. The global temperature of the Earth will drop by 8 0 C, causing an ice age. But to lead to the extinction of humanity, the asteroid would have to be 10 times larger.
Giant danger
Scientists recently found out that centaurs should be included in the list of potential threats to our planet - these are giant asteroids with a diameter of 50 to 100 km. The gravitational field of other planets throws them towards our Earth every 40-100 thousand years. Their number has now increased sharply. Scientists are constantly calculating whether a giant asteroid will fall to Earth in the near future, although calculating the trajectory of the fall of the centaurs is a very difficult task.
In addition, the list of potential threats to the Earth includes:
- supervolcanic eruption;
- global pandemic;
- asteroid impact (at 0.00013%);
- nuclear war;
- ecological catastrophy.
Will an asteroid hit Earth in October 2017?
The main question that worries scientists at the moment is the danger posed by an asteroid whose size is 2 times larger than the Chelyabinsk meteorite. There is a possibility that an event will occur in October 2017 that will cause a disaster on a much larger scale than the 2013 strike. Astronomer Judith Rees claims that the asteroid's diameter reaches 40 km. It was dubbed object WF9.
A dangerous celestial body was discovered by scientists in Hawaii back in 2012. That year it passed at a very close distance from the Earth, and on October 12, 2017 it will approach the most dangerous distance for our planet. Scientists believe that if an asteroid actually hits Earth, the British will be the first to see it.
At the moment, scientists are actively studying the possibility of a collision. True, the probability of an asteroid falling to Earth is very small and, according to researchers, is 1 in a million. However, it still exists.
Constant danger
It should be noted that certain asteroids of different sizes are constantly flying past the Earth. They are potentially dangerous, but very rarely actually fall to Earth. So, at the end of 2016, a body flew past the Earth at a distance of 2/3 of the distance from a small truck.
And January 2017 was marked by the passage of a celestial body reaching the size of a 10-story building. It flew within 180 thousand km of us.
Surprises from space
At 9:20 a.m. on February 15, 2013, residents of the Urals and Kazakhstan witnessed an incredible space show: a bright fireball flashed over their heads and exploded over Chelyabinsk 13 seconds after entering the atmosphere. In the evening of the same day, the “big brother” of the Chelyabinsk meteorite, asteroid 2012 DA14 the size of a 15-story building, flew very close to the Earth. It flew at a distance of 26 thousand kilometers from our planet, so the second show did not happen.
The visit of the space guest did not result in casualties, but about one and a half thousand residents of the city and region suffered from broken windows and panic. Economic damage, according to regional officials, amounted to over a billion rubles.
Shot from DVR/youtube
The Chelyabinsk meteorite was the first whose fall was comprehensively studied and documented. The falling car was filmed on thousands of Chelyabinsk residents' car recorders, and a whole team of geologists led by Viktor Grokhovsky, who caught the Chelyabinsk from the bottom of Lake Chebarkul in October 2013, hunted for its remains.
The fall of Chelyabinsk, the largest object to collide with the Earth since the Tunguska meteorite, shook the public, politicians and the scientific community. Network users began to watch disaster films about asteroids and comets, and politicians were surprised to discover that the Earth is not in empty space, but surrounded by thousands of huge objects that threaten to destroy a large part of the planet.
The site of the fall of the Tunguska meteorite. Traces of a forest fire and forest fall
A direct result of the Chelyabinsk meteorite fall was a tripling of NASA's budget for monitoring and combating near-Earth objects. Russian officials have announced their readiness to create a system that would shoot down visitors from space using thermonuclear warheads, and promised to develop an early warning program under the auspices of the Ministry of Emergency Situations by 2020.
On both sides of the ocean, people had the same questions: why was the Chelyabinsk not discovered before it fell? How is it possible and is it possible in principle to combat such a cosmic threat? What do the falling celestial stones threaten us with and how much does it cost to protect ourselves from them?
Space Population Census
The answer to the question why the meteorite was not discovered in time is quite simple: small celestial bodies with a diameter of about 20 meters, like Chelyabinsk, are not considered by asteroid hazard experts to be capable of causing serious harm to the Earth and therefore do not closely monitor them.
Although scientists still keep an eye on such celestial stones with the help of robotic telescopes as part of the Catalina Sky Survey, Pan-STARRS and many other public and private initiatives. But the main “responsible” for the search for potential killers of humanity is the orbital infrared telescope WISE, which finds even asteroids invisible from Earth, which almost do not reflect light.
WISE telescope, photo: NASA
Based on the results of the work of the telescope, NASA in 2010 and 2011 published a catalog of near-Earth objects - about 18.5 thousand in total, and also used the danger criteria developed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (Turin scale), according to which all asteroids in the NEOWISE catalog were colored according to the probability of their collision with the Earth from white (no danger) to red (collision imminent).
Good news: as of today, all objects in this catalog are white. This means that so far scientists have not been able to find a single near-Earth asteroid whose probability of falling to Earth in the next 200 years exceeds 1%, or three on the Turin scale. Periodically, objects with non-zero danger scores appeared in the catalog, but as their orbits were refined, they quickly dropped first to one, and then to zero.
Two asteroids - Apophis and Bennu - were assigned very high hazard index values when they were discovered. Opened in 2004, the 350-meter Apophis (by the way, it was named not in honor of the ancient Egyptian god Apep, but in honor of the villain from the TV series Stargate: SG-1) first received a record two at that time, and then a four on the Turin scale. The collision with Earth was supposed to occur in 2036.
A photograph of the Itokawa asteroid taken during the Japanese Hayabusa mission in 2005. Presumably, the asteroid is identical in composition and size to Apophis. Photo: ISAS/JAXA
Two years later, when astronomers refined the asteroid’s orbit, it was lowered first to one and then to zero. The probability that Apophis will meet Earth is estimated at 0.00089%, or one chance in 112 thousand. Today, the most dangerous near-Earth object is considered to be the 500-meter Apollo asteroid 2009 FD, which may fall to Earth in 2185 with a probability of 0.29%.
Orbit of Apophis
As for objects the size of Chelyabinsk, scientists cannot estimate how often they can fall to Earth and whether the real threat is great. In 2011, at the first presentation of the NEOWISE catalog, NASA reported that today we know only about five thousand asteroids about one hundred meters in size, while their total number is estimated at several tens of thousands. The number of smaller objects within the main asteroid belt can reach a million.
Made from something
It is impossible to accurately assess the damage due to the fact that we know very little about the composition of asteroids, and this is critical information, without which it is impossible to assess the consequences of the fall of a hypothetical “Apophis” to Earth.
The idea of studying asteroids “in situ” has been in the minds of astronomers for quite some time. The pioneer in this matter was the Japanese Hayabusa probe, which went to the Itokawa asteroid in 2008 in order to collect soil samples. Due to numerous breakdowns and fantastic bad luck, the Hayabusa managed to collect only one and a half thousand dust particles, which it nevertheless delivered to Earth in 2010.
Hayabusa-2. Image: JAXA
In the winter of 2014, the successor of the unsuccessful probe, the Hayabusa-2 apparatus, set off for the asteroid 1999 JU3, which will arrive at the target in 2018. In parallel, NASA is developing its own mission, OSIRIS-REx, which will fly to Bennu in 2016 with the same mission as Hayabusa.
The lack of specific data on the composition of asteroids does not prevent engineers from dreaming of defense systems against celestial guests. One of the many projects is the DE-STAR system, which should properly heat a dangerous asteroid and knock it off its path. According to the calculations of the authors of the idea, a platform 100 meters in size will be enough to push Apophis out of its orbit, and a ten-kilometer laser will be enough to completely evaporate it.
In addition, there are projects like the NEOShield or ISIS probes, a potential “companion” of OSIRIS-REx, which involve diverting asteroids from their intended course with a “right hook” - a collision with a heavy metal blank. As an option, engineers propose attaching a heavy satellite to the stone, which will change the orbit of the celestial body. Russian scientists from the Institute of Space Research are planning to shoot down asteroids with the help of other asteroids.
Artist's rendering of OSIRIS-REx. Image: University of Arizona/Goddard/NASA
Until Hayabusa2 and OSIRIS-REx reach their targets, scientists can only guess at the exact mineral and chemical composition of the asteroids. The composition of celestial bodies can be determined from their spectra, but due to collisions with other bodies, the surface of asteroids can radically change color, so the spectrum will deceive astronomers. Without knowing the composition, one can only approximately estimate the consequences of the fall of space rocks, based on what disasters the Earth has already experienced in the past.
Well forgotten old
The most famous and studied trace of such falls is the Chicxulub crater on the Yucatan Peninsula in southern Mexico. The fall of a 10-kilometer cosmic “boulder” 65.5 million years ago left a crater with a diameter of 180 kilometers and led to catastrophic consequences: it is believed that it was because of the fall of the meteorite that dinosaurs and a fair part of the Mesozoic fauna became extinct.
And this is not the worst option: the diameter of the Vredefort crater in South Africa, apparently left by a meteorite, is 300 kilometers. The “pebble” fell to Earth about two billion years ago, when microbes dominated the planet. Just recently, scientists discovered in Australia an as yet unnamed crater with a diameter of 400 kilometers, which arose about 300-420 million years ago.
Another thing is that not many traces of encounters with small asteroids - up to several hundred meters - are known, so the consequences of the fall of such stones on cities and densely populated countries cannot be determined.
One of the few examples of such events is the so-called “Clovis Comet” - an object supposedly the size of the Tunguska meteorite (scientists do not agree whether it was an asteroid or a comet), which fell into the New World approximately 13 thousand years ago. Its fall caused large-scale fires, a sharp cooling due to clouds of ash and aerosol particles, the extinction of the remains of megafauna and the disappearance of the Clovis culture, the first tribes of the American Indians.
Only in 2013 did geologists manage to localize the crash site of this object: it crashed in the province of Quebec in Canada, but the crater itself has not yet been found. So it may very well be that the Clovis Comet was relatively small.
What to do?
This question is regularly asked to the head of NASA and Russian space officials. As the current head of the American Space Agency put it, so far humanity has only one option - “pray”, since the problem has been ignored for decades and there are no effective means for destruction and 100% detection of asteroids.
Moreover, until the results of the Hayabusa and Osiris studies are received, as well as complete catalogs of near-Earth asteroids, governments are unlikely to allocate money for anything other than prayer. Politicians remember celestial surprises only when the next Chelyabinsk falls, and their ardor quickly cools when they see calculations of the amounts that need to be invested in protecting the Earth. So today humanity can only hope for commercial projects for the “development” of asteroids - perhaps the data they collect on small celestial bodies and comets will convince officials to seriously think about the future of the planet.
Alexander Telishev
In recent weeks, the media has been trumpeting that the world could end on October 12th. Allegedly, a giant asteroid will fly near the Earth, which could destroy the planet.
While humanity is still alive, we decided to talk with the head of the Solar System Research Department at the Institute of Astronomy of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Valery Shematovich, about why they constantly scare us about the end of the world and whether there is an asteroid that really threatens to destroy the Earth.
Valery Shematovich
Valery Ivanovich, you’ve definitely heard about this dangerous giant asteroid, which is supposed to cause the end of the world on October 12 - is there even a pinch of truth in this?
The asteroid actually flew past the Earth at about 7 a.m. Moscow time. He flew relatively close to the Earth, but close - that’s 50 thousand kilometers. Its dimensions are about 13 meters, this asteroid was discovered back in 2014, it flew past us before, scientists are watching it and know its orbit. By and large, this is the most common event; many different small bodies fly past the Earth.
Then why did the media highlight this particular event? After all, people started talking about this asteroid almost a year before today.
Apparently the public has become excited after the summer season and is waiting for sensations. I read on the Internet, there were many messages that it would supposedly fall to Earth. As you can see, it didn’t fall - it flew past without any consequences.
Who's lying about the end of the world?
Who do you think is starting these rumors about the end of the world? The media or maybe the astronomers themselves, wanting to become famous?
There are often reports in the press that one or another huge asteroid will fall to Earth, which will cause large-scale destruction, the end of the world, and the like, but this is all a damaged phone. I don’t think this comes from astronomers - they are professionals and will not risk their reputation. This usually comes from the press, which takes information from astronomers, distorts the numbers and exaggerates the story. There is a special asteroid-rock hazard program that monitors near-Earth space and all objects flying past the Earth. If such an object comes very close to the Earth, scientists first of all warn the Ministry of Emergency Situations and residents, and do not write in the media. But usually the probability of a collision with the Earth is very small.
Photo: Pixabay.com - Have there been cases when real danger actually arose?
Of course, the Chelyabinsk meteorite, for example. Astronomers, however, could not predict its fall. The problem is that it came from the direction of the Sun, and it shines so brightly that it is quite difficult to observe the sky in the direction of the Sun. But astronomers are now busy developing systems that would warn of the approach of such objects from the direction of the Sun. Today's asteroid was not coming from the direction of the Sun, so we knew its orbit well.
When will the world really end?
- Are there any asteroids that could fall to Earth in the coming months or years?
Yes, they fall quite often, but these are mostly small objects that either completely or almost completely burn up in the atmosphere. These beautiful “shooting stars” are precisely a consequence of their entry into the atmosphere. But objects larger than 10 meters do not have time to burn and produce a magnificent spectacle - a meteorite recently fell in Altai, in Canada. But the consequences of such explosions are negligible.
- And those that can pose a real danger to the Earth?
There is a whole catalog of objects that we know about. In the next 10 years, nothing from these objects known to us will threaten us. But we don’t know everything - there are many objects in space that have not yet been recorded. Therefore, a truly dangerous new object may appear completely unexpectedly.
- Could a collision with an asteroid even lead to the end of the world, or is this something out of science fiction?
No, this is not fantasy at all. There are objects that can be very dangerous. Scientists think about them. There is such an asteroid Apophis, and there was talk in the scientific community that in 2022 it could fly very close to Earth, and if it falls, the consequences will be fatal. But scientists have clarified its orbit and the threat of its collision with the Earth has become vanishingly small. It may someday end up in a more dangerous orbit in another 50 years, but for now we can sleep soundly.
Well, okay, but if astronomers discover a giant asteroid that will soon crash to Earth, then what to do next? How to prepare for this?
The question is how long before astronomers can find out about the collision and warn everyone. We cannot do anything with an asteroid approaching the Earth, but we can calculate approximately the region where it can fall and declare a mass evacuation. At the moment, we can warn people about where exactly a space object will fall at least 4-5 hours, or even a day before the fall. This time is quite enough to take people out.
It is alleged that it is larger and more dangerous than the Chelyabinsk meteorite
On October 12, a giant asteroid may collide with the Earth, the fall of which is fraught with significant consequences. According to a number of media outlets, this forecast was made by American astronomer Jujit Rees, representing the University of Texas. According to reports, the asteroid poses a greater danger than the famous meteorite that fell in the Chelyabinsk region in February 2013.
With reference to Jujit Rees, the media claim that the diameter of the space object approaching the Earth is, with some probability, about 40 meters, that is, it may turn out to be larger than the Chelyabinsk meteorite. The exact size of the celestial body has not yet been determined, and if it turns out that it is still not too large, even if it enters the earth’s atmosphere, it does not pose any danger to the inhabitants of the planet. However, if it turns out to be large and falls to the Earth (especially if there is a populated area at the point of impact), a crater may form at the collision site, and destruction will be observed around.
However, in the same reports that mention Judith Rees, it is noted that other experts assess the likelihood of this asteroid falling on Earth as extremely low.
The meteorite, whose diameter is estimated at approximately 17 meters and mass at 10 thousand tons, entered the Earth’s atmosphere over the Chelyabinsk region on February 15, 2013 and exploded at an altitude of 15-25 kilometers. As a result, 1,613 people were injured, and material damage amounted to almost 500 thousand rubles.
By the way, earlier, a researcher at the Pulkovo Observatory, Sergei Smirnov, and specialists working at the Moscow Planetarium, said that on September 9, 10 and 11, residents of Russia, in case of suitable weather conditions, will be able to see it in the area of the constellation Draco. However, experts note that the almost full Moon will most likely interfere with observations.
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