Last news. Latest news What exactly did you prepare?

“Excuse me, but did you come for 11/5/17?” — a schoolboy with glasses asked me embarrassedly. Hearing an affirmative answer, he looked around in confusion and asked the main question of the day: “Why are there so few people here?”

In the morning, the area in front of Smolny and the surrounding streets were clogged with police cars and trucks with riot police. The “cosmonauts” looked around boredly. By 12 o’clock, supporters of the leader of the extremist movement “Artpodgotovka” (banned in Russia) Vyacheslav Maltsev were supposed to arrive at Smolny. He had been promising a revolution in Russia for more than two years, and its date had long been known—11/5/17. All this time, activists “were not waiting, but preparing.” And not just an ordinary rally, but a forceful seizure of power and regime change.

A few days before the cherished date, unprecedented activity reigned in opposition chats. The “Maltsevskys” passed the recipe for a Molotov cocktail to each other and discussed the burning of riot police. “Goals: capture of Smolny, the Legislative Assembly and regional television centers (from there you can call people to come out and support the protest).” “You may not be in the forefront, you may not fight, but you must come. Take sandwiches, a first aid kit, tea with you and watch history.” “Whoever does not come has suffered, a coward and a slave.” And everything like that. There were only a few hours left before the start of the “new historical era” promised by Maltsev.

But in fact, less than 100 people came to Smolny. Some of them consisted of schoolchildren who are now ready to support any rallies against the current government. Truckers huddled in their corner. A dozen elderly women nearby loudly condemned the low protest activity. One of them even put on thermal underwear and took extra socks with her in hopes of a revolution.

- It’s just that everyone left for Moscow! Everything happens there!

- All the men didn’t come! And the women came. We are a women's battalion.

The women attracted the attention of journalists, but the presence of cameras did not please them.

“Who did you come here for? For us or for Putin? — the most active “revolutionary” attacked the media representatives.

The police on duty examined each suspicious character. And among the latter, oddly enough, were “prepared” people. The first to be detained was a man who was carrying an entire arsenal in his backpack - an ax, pyrotechnics and gas masks. Two more boys had medical masks and brilliant green with them. Law enforcement officers, of course, also studied opposition chats and talked about it among themselves. Even the day before, they read that this green stuff was intended for them.

A strange-looking man was detained with a bottle of either alcohol or a Molotov cocktail. One young man, probably hoping for real revolutionary skirmishes, brought with him several packages of bandages. “Why do you need so much?” - The police were surprised. But no reason was found for sanctions. In total, from Smolny, according to various estimates, from 7 to 11 people were detained.

At a distance from the police, young guys in sportswear with hoods on their heads stood in groups in the square. They watched what was happening from under their brows, but no one dared to take any active action, although it could only be expected from them. These are the guys who, in theory, should form the core of Maltsev’s fans. But in reality there were much fewer of them than on the Internet.

Now you can no longer understand how exaggerated the discussions about the allegedly prepared Molotov cocktails and other weapons were. Even on the eve of the action, the FSB reported on the cleanup. According to the department, on November 3, in the Moscow region, the illegal activities of the clandestine cell of the Artpodgotovka movement were identified and suppressed, “planning to commit actions on November 4-5 in the form of arson of administrative buildings using incendiary mixtures and attacks on police officers.” Searches and detentions of Maltsev’s supporters also took place in other regions. So the protest was decapitated in any case. Maltsev himself has long been hiding from the law abroad.

Therefore, it is not surprising that the promised revolution in St. Petersburg turned out to be even more pitiful than other actions of the democrats. After the coup at Smolny failed, Maltsev’s supporters moved to St. Isaac’s Cathedral. Riot police and police were already waiting for them there, again outnumbering the protesters. And two more wedding processions and a group of teenage girls who were having a meeting with a certain video blogger.

“Let's all hug! I wish you happiness!" — the blogger exclaimed joyfully. The girls took selfies and didn’t even notice that they were in the midst of a potential revolution.

The police rather rudely detained a young man wearing a “Glory to Rus'” sweatshirt, who refused to take off his balaclava. Another teenager went to the station because he had pepper spray on him. The law enforcement officers hesitantly tried to disperse the small crowd a couple of times, but each time they seemed to give up on all this: they would disperse on their own. An hour later it happened.

Meanwhile, the inhabitants of the chat rooms living in a parallel reality continued to actively write messages. The fact that the revolution had begun was only the first step. There were reports of some “mass arrests” in St. Petersburg. Although in reality they turned out to be massive only in Moscow - more than 260 people were taken to police departments there. The dissatisfied complained that Alexey Navalny was bringing hundreds of times more people onto the streets.

The result was an amazing “revolution 2.0”: no activity in reality, but talk about “rocking paddy wagons,” “holding combat positions,” and “recruiting for a power group” on the Internet.

“11/5/17 failed. Time to prepare for revenge. I encourage all supporters to write to me for further regrouping/coordination. We can’t give up now!” — another anonymous person was already scribbling in the group.

Everyone was waiting for what Maltsev would say about this. Some already thought that he had “merged.” But during the day, the disgraced activist still got in touch with his comrades.

“Nothing happened... Nothing happened in terms of failure. We have taken a step forward. The revolution continues,” he said live on YouTube.

Sofia Mokhova

Today at noon another revolution began and ended in the country, but most Russians did not notice it

Somewhere there, on the eve of the celebration of the 100th anniversary of the Great October Revolution, Vladimir Ilyich Lenin is laughing and crying. His body lies in the mausoleum on Red Square, and his soul laughs. Because today at exactly 12, when the chimes were striking on the Kremlin’s Spasskaya Tower, a revolution began in Russia. Few people noticed it, but she was there. It didn’t last long, it ended quickly, but it still happened – read chat rooms and the liberal press. Everything would probably have happened if once again it were not for the arrests of fiery revolutionaries and “the people are not the same.” In any case, this is the standard version of the assorted unsuccessful shamans of the “Putin regime”

The organizer of today’s “revolution”, Vyacheslav Maltsev, while in Georgia, broadcast on the video channel of his movement on YouTube about how the authorities are afraid of his supporters, having brought columns of military equipment into Moscow, that the people are angry and the media are talking about the “revolution” on all channels. In the chats of protesters of various stripes, in their own little world separate from the rest of the country, there were enthusiastic exclamations about the coming bright future, which the most radical liberals proposed to illuminate with burning tires and Molotov cocktails. In turn, political scientists and experts doubted the mental health and adequacy of the leader of Artpodgotovka, and supporters of another oppositionist, Alexei Navalny, froze in anticipation, having previously disowned the “Maltsevites.”

Let's not look far for examples. Let's take only Krasnodar. The other day, the coordinator of Navalny’s local headquarters, Miroslav Valkovich, with some irony, answered a question from journalists as follows:

“They often began to ask, like: “Well, when and where is 5/11?” I think you need to ask those who “didn’t wait, but prepared.” They have been preparing for more than a year, but they ask where and when with us! Of course, it’s good that the headquarters is considered the center of the city’s opposition, but the question is in the wrong place. We are the Headquarters of Alexei Navalny, a future candidate for the presidency of Russia. We are not the organizers of November 4, 5 and 6. We really hope that the people who prepared for so long did everything wisely and carefully, and there will be no legal consequences.”

That is, Valkovich clearly distanced the headquarters from the Maltsevskys. Just in case. However, today, out of the dozen “revolutionaries” who came to the building of the regional administration, almost half turned out to be supporters and volunteers of Alexei Navalny, and even an activist of the “Environmental Watch for the North Caucasus.” This is the Krasnodar revolutionary core. It is worth noting, of course, that the main contingent of militant “Maltsev revolutionaries” was detained even earlier, on November 2, also about a dozen people. But the banner of struggle was picked up in the public pages of Alexei Anatolyevich’s supporters, and there were one and a half thousand subscribers there. Many sincerely, but weakly worried about the future “revolution”, called to go to the regional administration at 12, posted calls from the “Maltsevskys” and the leader of Artpodgotovka himself. All in vain. Aleksey’s adherents actually planned their own “revolution” in March 2018, and Maltsev and his few associates were just a rehearsal for it, a test of the Russian authorities “for lice.” The authorities did not become modest and tied the “revolutionaries” gently.

For more than 80% of the country's population who support the president, all these ideas of revolutions are initially not interesting, which wildly infuriates the few liberals. They prefer to explain all this by Russians’ fear of Putin and the victory of the television over the refrigerator. This is where the initial failure of all these attempts lies to organize one, two or three more revolutions in a country that experienced several revolutions in the 20th century. Liberals cannot understand that both the country and the people are the same, it’s just that the ideas of modern “revolutionaries” are rotten. Those who went through the democratization of the 90s, MMM and the “Bush legs” received a vaccination against all these “revolutions”. And these 80% know the history of their country much better than any “Navalnists” and “Maltsevites” who actually dream of a coup d’etat. There has already been a revolution in Russia, made by liberals - the February Revolution. As a result, after they all quarreled among themselves, the Bolsheviks came to power under the leadership of Lenin. That is why today he is somewhere out there crying and laughing at modern “revolutionaries”.

Expert opinion:

Alexander Topalov– political strategist, head of the Center for Political Research and Technology:

“At the moment, it is absolutely obvious that only the least developed members of the protest movement fell for the provocation of the oppositionist Maltsev. Seriously thinking about the use of force, tires and “sandbags” with an asset of 20 people is a sign of not only political, but also completely medical dementia. Navalny’s supporters, some of whom joined Artpodgotovka, also suffered serious reputational damage today. Thus, one of the chats on Telegram, where the use of force by Artpodgotovka activists is discussed, was created by Navalny’s volunteer, as he himself admits. Savelyev, a member of EcoWatch, was also among those detained. How Navalnists and Rudomakha’s employees plan to launder their reputation from the participation in the action of people who prepared Molotov cocktails at home is not yet clear.”

A whole group of extremists who threatened to organize a new revolution in Russia were detained by the FSB. Representatives of the Artpodgotovka movement were preparing pogroms and arson on National Unity Day. The leader of the movement was one of the associates of the leader of the PARNAS party, Mikhail Kasyanov. Why did the non-systemic opposition collaborate with such a radical character?

Fugitive oppositionist and emigrant Vyacheslav Maltsev on Friday evening called a series of arrests of his supporters in Russia a “dirty provocation.” “There is a channel called Artpodgotovka, in which I broadcast every evening. We have supporters, spectators. But there are such people in half of Russia. Some of my programs are watched by five million people. And this is exactly the “Artpodgotovki” group. Am I giving out some documents?” – Maltsev asked rhetorically, speaking on the air of Echo of Moscow.

According to his version, he does not know who was detained by the FSB officers, and bottles of gasoline found during searches do not prove the fact of preparation for arson.

As the newspaper VZGLYAD wrote, on Friday the FSB announced that activists of the Artpodgotovka movement, specifying that they planned to set fire to administrative buildings and attack police officers on National Unity Day in the center of Moscow in order to provoke mass unrest. The issue of initiating a case under the article “Attempted terrorist attack” is being decided. The FSB suppressed the activities of Artpodgotovka cells in Krasnoyarsk, Krasnodar, Kazan, Samara and Saratov.

As the Saratov online newspaper Vzglyad-info reported, in Saratov and neighboring Engels, security officers held events in the apartments of certain Sergei Ryzhov, Dmitry Peshkov, Alexander Molokin and Dmitry Germanov. Ryzhov is accused of preparing a terrorist attack on November 4 or 5. The Frunzensky District Court has already sent Ryzhov into custody for two months.

From a formal point of view, Maltsev is right - he did not legalize his movement and did not issue membership cards to supporters. Maltsev founded the unregistered Artpodgotovka movement (at the end of October the Krasnoyarsk Regional Court banned it, declaring it extremist) and the YouTube channel of the same name several years ago, by his own admission, to organize a “revolution” in Russia.

The active political career of Vyacheslav Maltsev began in the nineties. In 1994–2007, he was a deputy and even vice-speaker of the Saratov Regional Duma. He created a large security company and even called himself “the richest man in the region.” At the beginning of the 2000s, he was a member of United Russia for a short time. He was also a member of the Fatherland - All Russia party and ran for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. However, Maltsev’s romance with any of the parties was always short-lived.

Vanguard revolutionary

Last year, Maltsev ran in the State Duma elections from the PARNAS party, after which the top of this already dwarf party immediately split. Maltsev actually became the face of PARNAS, eclipsing its nominal leader, ex-Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov. He actively used radical rhetoric, speaking at election debates on federal television, and demanded the impeachment of the president. As a result, the party received less than a percent of the votes.

In June, Maltsev was arrested for 10 days for disobeying the demands of law enforcement officers at an unauthorized demonstration in Moscow.

In July, a criminal case was opened against Maltsev under the article “Public calls for extremist activities.” “Fearing a possible arrest, he fled abroad and continued his ‘propaganda of violent actions’ on the Internet,” the FSB recalled on Friday. Presumably, Maltsev fled to France. In mid-October, the Meshchansky Court of Moscow arrested Maltsev in absentia.

Many years ago, Maltsev began to prophesy a new revolution in Russia, and he even indicated the exact date - November 5, 2017. According to him, mass unrest will break out in the center of Moscow during the next “Russian March” on November 4 and will develop into a revolution the next morning.

Although there are no signs of a revolutionary situation in the country, which even the majority of radical oppositionists agree with, Maltsev again warned a few days ago that the people “will come out to a referendum, to a people’s gathering.” He even posted an appeal online to law enforcement officers, threatening them: “The revolution is coming on November 5, 2017” - and offered to come over to his side.

Managed to reassure Ukrainians

By the way, the Ukrainian press took Maltsev’s predictions at face value. Even publications that position themselves as reputable seriously accompanied their publications on internal Russian politics with a note that a revolution would take place in Moscow on November 5, 2017, after which Kyiv would get back both Crimea and Donbass.

Maltsev indeed, in his election rhetoric, promised to immediately conclude a peace treaty with Ukraine if he came to power. However, Ukrainian analysts should hardly take Maltsev’s word for it – even before the reunification of Crimea and Russia, he himself called for “squeezing” territories from Ukraine.

Center for Political Analysis expert Andrei Tikhonov recalled that the inclusion of Maltsev in the PARNAS electoral list a year ago was personally achieved by party leader Mikhail Kasyanov, which showed a penchant for “attracting strange personnel to realize political ambitions.”

“Maltsev represented the nationalist spectrum of the opposition. The idea that the radical opposition can succeed only if it attracts nationalists to its side was worked out back in the 2000s, when the “People” movement was created. And Alexey Navalny also took part in this, he started out as a Russian nationalist,” Tikhonov told the newspaper VZGLYAD.

The expert called the liberals’ flirtation with the marginalized public logical. Tikhonov recalled that Maltsev had a huge audience on his YouTube channel. Opposition leaders, including Navalny, came to see him on air. “They really listened to him. But the quality of this audience is questionable. Many who came across Maltsev’s sayings that year of the Duma elections were perplexed as to how this man could say such things, why he was not yet in prison,” Tikhonov recalled.

The political scientist suggested that Navalny’s “frostbitten supporters” are unlikely to believe in Maltsev’s guilt even now, but “this should make an impression” on those who doubt it. “They should think about what kind of people were around Navalny. I do not rule out that among the Navalnists there may be extremists who are capable of anything. This is a signal to all reasonable forces to stay away from radicals,” Tikhonov concluded.

  • November 3, 2017, 12:16 In Krasnoyarsk, a supporter of Maltsev was arrested in the case of inciting to organize mass riots

In Krasnoyarsk, a court arrested for two months an activist of the Artpodgotovka movement, banned in Russia, Alexander Zaitsev, suspected of inciting to organize mass riots (clause 1.1 of Article 212 of the Criminal Code), lawyer Kirill Zyuzin told Mediazona.

Earlier, the chairman of the international human rights group Agora, Pavel Chikov, published in his Telegram channel a resolution to initiate a criminal case against Zaitsev.

According to the document, Zaitsev, being the head of the Artpodgotovka branch in Krasnoyarsk, sent a letter from his email account to Roman Maryan and Pyotr Isaev “containing information about the armed uprising planned by supporters of the Interregional Social Movement - MZ “Artpodgotovka” on 05.11.2017 in Moscow”, as well as calls to take part in it.

According to the examination, this letter contains “signs of encouraging a group of people (including in the form of a call) to take joint action (including violent) in the form of an uprising, active participation in an armed uprising, expressed in military operations against the current government and government representatives, namely the police and other law enforcement agencies.”

Maryan and Isaev decided to go to Moscow. Zaitsev helped them plan their trip and “warned them about secrecy measures.” Police detained two activists as they boarded a train at Achinsk station.

On November 2, it became known that in Krasnoyarsk the Zheleznodorozhny District Court of Maryan was on suspicion of preparing to participate in mass riots (Part 1 of Article 30, Part 2 of Article 212 of the Criminal Code).

  • November 3, 2017, 13:01 In Saratov, the court arrested a supporter of Maltsev, suspected of preparing a terrorist attack

In Saratov, the Frunzensky District Court arrested Maltsev’s supporter Sergei Ryzhov on suspicion of preparing a terrorist attack (Part 1 of Article 30, Part 1 of Article 205 of the Criminal Code), reports the Svobodnye Novosti agency.

The FSB representative in court announced the version of the investigation, according to which Ryzhov planned to carry out terrorist attacks in Saratov on November 4 and 5 - an explosion and arson - and was looking for accomplices for this among Maltsev’s supporters. The judge read out reports from FSB operatives, according to which Ryzhov is the leader of the unregistered “Party of Free People,” which planned to seize the government building of the Saratov region, Teatralnaya Square and the post office in early November.

The fact that Ryzhov was detained, November 2. Lawyer Igor Elifkhanov said that on the morning of November 1, security forces broke into the apartment of a friend of the activist, where Ryzhov had been staying for the last few days. During the search, 200 grams of TNT and five Molotov cocktails were seized from the apartment in the presence of witnesses. Ryzhov himself claims that the explosives were planted on him.

  • November 3, 2017, 13:29 FSB reported on the suppression of the activities of “Artpodgotovka” in six regions

The FSB reported on the suppression of the activities of the Artpodgotovka movement in six regions; Activists were detained in the Moscow region for allegedly planning to set fire to administrative buildings on November 4 and 5, the intelligence service reports.

“The illegal activities of the clandestine cell of the Artpodgotovka movement, which planned to carry out high-profile extremist actions on November 4-5, 2017, in the form of arson of administrative buildings using incendiary mixtures and attacks on police officers with the aim of provoking mass unrest,” the intelligence service reports about the capital region.

The number of detainees is not specified. The FSB notes that 15 Molotov cocktails were seized, and the issue of initiating a case under Article 30, Part 2 of Article 205 of the Criminal Code (attempted terrorist attack) is being decided.

The department also reports that the movement’s activities have been suppressed in Krasnodar, Krasnoyarsk, Kazan, Saratov and Samara. According to the intelligence service, “Artpodgotovka activists who remained in Russia in a number of cities across the country formed groups to carry out high-profile extremist actions aimed at destabilizing the socio-political situation.”

Supporters of Maltsev and Navalny from the Krasnodar Territory were sent under arrest for resisting the police

On November 1 and 2, the Prikubansky District Court of Krasnodar ordered the administrative arrest of three activists under Article 19.3 of the Code of Administrative Offenses (disobedience to a lawful order of a police officer), the Caucasian Knot reports.

The publication writes that Nikita Smirnov, who was arrested on November 2 for 10 days, “was previously a member” of the Artpodgotovka movement. The same punishment was imposed on Vitaly Votanovsky, a volunteer at the local headquarters of opposition leader Alexei Navalny.

Dave Frenkel (@merr1k) November 5, 2017

“OVD-Info”: 42 people were detained on Manezhnaya Square in Moscow

In Moscow, 42 people were detained on Manezhnaya Square, OVD-Info reports.

According to one of the detained activists, there are 20 people in his paddy wagon.

Echo of Moscow correspondent Andrei Yezhov detained in the center of Moscow

Echo of Moscow correspondent Andrei Yezhov was detained in the center of Moscow. wrote journalist on his Twitter.

Yezhov was on the square while working.

“OVD-Info”: 88 people were detained in Moscow, St. Petersburg and Krasnoyarsk

In Moscow, St. Petersburg and Krasnoyarsk, 88 people were detained at protests, OVD-Info reports.

Of these, 82 people were detained in Moscow, two in St. Petersburg and four in Krasnoyarsk.

TASS: More than 200 people were detained on Manezhnaya Square in Moscow

More than 200 people were detained on Manezhnaya Square in Moscow, TASS reports citing a source in law enforcement agencies.

“Currently the number of detainees has increased to 200<...>Among those detained, the majority are supporters of nationalist organizations. Earlier it was reported that more than 50 were detained,” the agency’s interlocutor said.

The source added that weapons, knives, pepper spray, brass knuckles and other prohibited means are confiscated from detainees during inspection. The agency’s interlocutor emphasized that “this suggests that people came for a reason, but were preparing to resist the forces of law and order.”

Now the entire perimeter of Manezhnaya Square is blocked by police, the exit from the Okhotny Ryad metro station is partially limited, Red Square is closed to free entry.

In Moscow, during the readings of Adam Smith, activists of “Spring” and libertarians were detained

In Moscow, on Tverskaya Street during the lunch break during the Adam Smith readings, activists of the “Spring” movement from St. Petersburg, as well as video blogger Mikhail Svetov and Mikhail Pozharsky, were detained. reports"Protest Moscow".

When in November 2014 I began using the “economic crisis” tag in the Snob news, one of our experts, the head of a large bank, only laughed about it when he learned about it. He said that there is no crisis. The Russian government at that moment also refused to admit that difficult times had come to the country. I saw the opposite: oil was getting cheaper, everything else was getting more expensive, people were saving on food, and what was happening was very reminiscent of the 2008 crisis.

There were many dark events happening in the world that year that I followed closely. And that’s probably why, at the beginning of September, I began to think about leaving Russia, out of harm’s way. At the end of autumn, I flew to Asia for six months, and a few days later, on “Black Tuesday,” experts, officials, and, it seems, all Russian residents in general began to call the crisis a “crisis.”

That same year I thought that in 2017 we would have a revolution. Now it’s difficult to remember whether I read about it in the press, heard about it on the bus or in the company of friends, but this idea was deeply embedded in my head.

Why in 2017? I do not know this. However, the feeling that something is coming in the country has only intensified recently.


Who predicted the revolution in 2017

One of the first, in December 2005, to announce the 2017 revolution was former Deputy Speaker of the State Duma Vladimir Ryzhkov. He gave an interview in which he pessimistically noted that a new revolution will begin in October 2017 - after the oil runs out.

Vladimir Ryzhkov, professor at the Higher School of Economics (in December 2005):

According to the International Energy Agency, we have exactly 12 years of oil left. When the “black gold” runs out, the country will be left penniless. The people will begin to storm the Winter Palace, with the only difference that in October 1917 they wanted to seize the government that was sitting there, and in 2017 they will want to steal the museum’s paintings in order to sell them to foreigners and feed their families.

By that time, the thought of revolution was already disturbing the minds of Russians. According to Yandex.News, the first Russian media material that mentioned both the “revolution” and “2017” was published five months after Ryzhkov’s statement—on February 16, 2006. This was a transcript of the broadcast on Ekho Moskvy, during which the presenter read out a message from a listener named Dmitry: “Accession to the WTO is a planned preparation for the 2017 revolution.”

Over the next six years, the topic of revolution was hardly raised in the media, and they started talking seriously only on the 95th anniversary of the October Revolution. In November 2012, Doctor of Political Sciences Sergei Chernyakhovsky wrote a column for Nakanune.ru entitled “The situations of 1917 and 2017 are very similar,” in which he stated that for the 2017 revolution “there are all the prerequisites.”

The revival began in 2013, when the branch of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation in Barnaul held the conference “Revolution 2017: myth or reality.” Local communists believed so much that this was real that on November 7, 2015, the first secretary of the Barnaul city committee of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, Andrei Sartakov, said from the podium: “There will be a revolution in 2017.”

In 2013, the Perm branch of the Lenin Komsomol, a youth political organization, posted on Twitter, a demotivator with Vladimir Lenin, who hid around the corner “waiting for 2017.”

In September 2015, economist Evgeny Gontmakher published an article “Revolution 2017” in Moskovsky Komsomolets, in which he compared the prerequisites for the 1917 revolution with the current state of affairs in the country.

Evgeniy Gontmakher, Deputy Director for Research at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (in September 2015):

If we compare it with autocratic Russia of the 20th century, then today provides ample ground for coincidences. For example, there is a rapid lumpenization of the population, which is predetermined by many factors: the low quality of education, the decline of mass culture, the abundance of “bad” (i.e., non-prestigious and low-paid) jobs, the drawing of the most active and advanced people to a few large cities, leaving them in others There is a critical number of “orphan and wretched” people in populated areas.

At the end of 2015, the former head of Yukos, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, gave a press conference at which he stated that a revolution in Russia was inevitable (however, he did not name the exact date of its start).

Mikhail Khodorkovsky, founder of Open Russia (in December 2015):

We are dealing with a full-fledged anti-constitutional coup. What's the solution? In the absence of the institution of fair elections and other mechanisms for the legal change of power, the only way to change it is through revolution. Revolution in Russia is inevitable. The remaining reserves and the threat of reprisals only delay its inevitable onset.

The question is how to make the revolution at least relatively peaceful and effective from the point of view of restoring democratic governance of the country. Revolution is a good word. It can and should be peaceful. Making the revolution peaceful is our common task.

When will the 2017 revolution begin?

November 5, 2017 is the date of the start of a new revolution in Russia. At least, this is what former Saratov deputy, nationalist and video blogger Vyacheslav Maltsev, as well as his many supporters who wrote the numbers “5.11.17” on the walls of houses in Russian cities, think.

Who is this anyway? Vyacheslav Maltsev worked as a deputy in the Saratov Regional Duma from 1994 to 2007, participated in the creation of the local United Russia, although he subsequently criticized it more than once. In 2016, he won the Parnassus primaries and almost led to a split within the party after making a statement about “political turmoil.” During the first debate on the Rossiya-1 TV channel, Maltsev called for the impeachment of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Didn't get into the State Duma.

Maltsev runs a YouTube channel “ Artillery preparation”, where his program “Bad News” is broadcast every week from Monday to Friday. He begins each broadcast with words about how many days are left until the beginning of the “new historical era,” that is, until November 5, 2017. The channel is popular: each episode of “Bad News” has about 80-100 thousand views, more than 100 thousand people subscribe to the account.

Residents of Russia have already begun to protest, but active protests will begin in the spring and summer of 2017, says sociologist Natalya Tikhonova.

Natalya Tikhonova, research professor at the Higher School of Economics (in February 2016):

Protest surges are already underway. But they go for economic reasons, locally. And in principle, the authorities are trying to extinguish them - not to put pressure, but to extinguish them. Because so far the population fully shares the concept that the current situation is to blame, firstly, for the fall in oil prices (which is like the weather or the harvest - bad today, good tomorrow), and, secondly, that we are also They are trying to bend it into an arc after Crimea. And the population, of course, is still ready to make certain sacrifices.

People still buy groceries—they just aren’t buying a new refrigerator right now. Or they decided to wait to change the car. Adaptive mechanisms are well known. For example, a quarter of the population returned to their gardens - at one time they stopped planting potatoes, but now they have started again. Well, they didn’t plant it for only about five years, maybe.

That is, nothing fundamentally new happened in their lives. And therefore, in general, there is no sharp protest now. Another thing is that after two to two and a half years of such self-restraint, household resources begin to be exhausted. Shoes break down, clothes wear out, but there is no money for new ones, the TV is broken, the refrigerator is leaking... In general, something starts to happen that requires additional investments. But there is no money for this. That's when it starts to get really annoying. If we have been experiencing crisis phenomena for about a year, then we have another year and a half left before the population begins to be indignant.

Scenario two. A crisis

Leading European economists doubt that protests could begin in Russia due to a recession, Bloomberg journalists found out in February 2016, who interviewed 27 economists from different countries. Only six of them said that protests in Russia are possible with a probability of 50 percent, the rest estimated the chances of revolution at 30 percent. “The political response to poverty is more likely to be apathy rather than revolution,” Wolf-Fabian Hungerland, an economist at the Hamburg Berenberg Bank, said at the time.

There is no revolution in Russia and in the ranking of the main threats of 2017, which is prepared annually by Bloomberg. But it does contain a new global economic crisis, which will certainly hit Russia (this happened in 1998 and 2008). In its pessimistic forecast, the publication predicts a repeat of the Asian crisis of 1997 - markets could fall if Donald Trump starts an economic war with China.

Russian economists and experts are also expecting a global economic crisis, and very soon. The fact is that the world economy is subject to cyclical fluctuations, so another decline can be expected before 2019, says economist Vladislav Inozemtsev.

Vladislav Inozemtsev, director of the Center for Research on Post-Industrial Society (in October 2016):

The world economy is subject to cyclical fluctuations that occur with fairly clear periodicity. The world is now experiencing its seventh year of sustained economic growth. Whatever supports this growth, it will not last forever: serious slowdowns in the US economy were noted in 1980 and 1982, 1991, 2001 and 2008-2009 (while in 2001 there was still growth, while in other cases there was a recession). Judging by the frequency, a new sharp decline should occur between 2016 and 2019, that is, quite soon. And although the US economy did not suffer very much (in 2009, the worst decline in decades was 3.5 percent), stock markets fell by 40-55 percent, and commodity prices fluctuated even more. A repetition of something similar in 2017-2018 would almost certainly cause irreparable damage to the Russian economy. And what is especially unpleasant is that there is more and more evidence in the world that a crisis is just around the corner.

One of the most prominent private traders in Russia (as RBC puts it) Vasily Oleynik, in turn, believes that in 2017-2018 “something very bad will happen.” And in this situation, according to him, cash will become a reliable asset.

Vasily Oleynik, Itinvest expert (in August 2016):

Something very bad is going to happen in the next two years. When this happens, the most valuable asset will be cash currency. So if you have some kind of safety net, you don’t need to keep it in banks or buy shares. Keep your money in foreign currency, not in euros, but in dollars, francs, and yuan. When disaster strikes, tremendous opportunities open up for you. You just need to manage your cash wisely. Perhaps buy shares that will fall in price to record levels, real estate - whoever has enough for what.

Scenario three. Revolution in our heads

The political situation in Russia will change dramatically in 2017-2018, but not because of the revolution, but thanks to the changes that are already taking place in the mass consciousness of Russians, says the political scientist and one of the most accurate predictors of changes in power (as Gazeta.Ru puts it) ) Valery Solovey.

Valery Solovey, professor at MGIMO (in October 2016):

I don’t believe at all that a bloody revolution will happen in Russia, especially with large-scale apocalyptic consequences like the collapse of the country. Nothing like this will happen.

I am inclined to believe that the political situation in Russia will change dramatically over the next two years. And it seems that changes will begin in 2017. It's not about the magic of numbers, it's not about the fact that this is a centenary - it's just a coincidence. There are some reasons for this forecast.

If we say that everything today is in the hands of the authorities, we must not forget that the government, which has no competitors, necessarily begins to make mistake after mistake. Plus, the general situation is pressing: the country is running out of resources, discontent is growing. It's one thing when you endure it for a year or two. And when they make it clear to you, and you yourself “in your gut” feel that you will have to endure it all your life (20 years of stagnation, what then?), your attitude begins to change.

And you suddenly realize that you have nothing to lose. It turns out that you have already lost everything. So what the hell isn't it - maybe change is better?

Sociologists who engage in qualitative research say that we are on the eve of a radical turn in mass consciousness, which will be very large-scale and deep. And this is a turn away from loyalty to the authorities. We experienced a similar situation at the turn of the 80-90s of the last century, before the collapse of the USSR. Because first revolutions happen in the minds. This is not even the willingness of people to oppose the authorities. This unwillingness to consider it an authority that deserves obedience and respect is what is called a loss of legitimacy.

Scenario four. Nothing

Political scientist and economist Dmitry Travin doubts that a revolution is possible in Russia. In his opinion, the current political situation is not similar to the events of 1917, but rather to the Brezhnev stagnation, but with stores littered with food and with the “ideology of a besieged fortress” in our heads.

Dmitry Travin, professor at the European University (in December 2016):

In connection with the approaching anniversary of the Russian Revolution, in the coming 2017 we increasingly began to look for the features of the fateful 1917. Sometimes they even look for a mystical connection between them, believing that Russia is doomed to convulse precisely in the year 17, and not in any other year.

We will not look for a mystical connection, but if you look at the specific factors that determine social instability, it will be difficult to detect serious similarities between eras. What is common, perhaps, is that the political regimes in both cases contain only elements of democracy, and that a significant part of the Russian elite does not like such half-heartedness.

Today everything is completely different from what it was in 1917. Power is legitimate, although it rests not on divine origin, but on the personal charisma of the national leader. The standard of living is declining, but not at all as rapidly as during the First World War. And we fight small, victorious wars, not crazy global ones that exhaust the participants to the limit.

The current situation in Russia is much more reminiscent of the Brezhnev era. The stability of the regime is maintained in conditions where the standard of living of the population is slowly declining, the elites are dissatisfied with what is happening, even the charisma of the leader is gradually dimming, but nothing happens that would predetermine a social explosion. Brezhnev, as we remember, died calmly in his post, and after him two more elderly general secretaries died in the same post before it was decided to announce perestroika. And it was announced not by old people accustomed to a quiet life, but by representatives of a new generation who, for some reason, strived to build socialism with a human face.

And this despite the fact that, of course, there are plenty of dissatisfied people everywhere. But the distance from discontent, sometimes recorded by mass polls, to a real revolution is enormous. Discontent is nothing more than one of the components of a social explosion. But far from decisive.

It is difficult to say what 2017 will actually be like and what scenario will form its basis. Social tension in society is obviously growing, but I would like to believe that this year troubles will still bypass Russia.



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